AGP Executive Report

SME Focus: Northern Ireland’s economy leans heavily on small firms, with 89.3% of VAT/PAYE-registered businesses employing fewer than 10 people, but entrepreneurs still face higher costs, finance gaps, skills shortages and extra regulation. Climate & Costs: Georgia Tech economist Casey Wichman warns wildfire smoke is now a recurring drag on spending, productivity and healthcare bills as AQI levels can spike far beyond safe ranges. AI Adoption Gap: Singapore’s AI push is strong, but the real test is whether capability spreads beyond a few key people inside firms. Payments Modernisation: New Zealand’s Reserve Bank is set to lead a strategy to modernise retail payments after admitting the system is reliable but behind global best practice. Data Centres & Power: New Zealand’s Datagrid is advancing “horizontal construction” for a future AI data centre, while Michigan’s Ypsilanti Township weighs a six-month delay over whether grid upgrades can handle a proposed U-M facility. Consumer Pressure: US retail sales fell 0.6% in July and consumer sentiment slipped, adding to worries about a slowdown. Corporate & Local Shock: Tyson’s closure could cost the Quad-Cities economy about $116M in lost wages, hitting spending and tax revenues. Banking Resilience: UAE banks closed 2025 with $1.4T in assets as bad loans fell and profits rose. Nigeria Fiscal Shift: Nigeria’s federal allocations have jumped above N2tn monthly after reforms, but officials stress states must boost internally generated revenue. Tourism Push: Nigeria launches “Ember to Remember 2026,” a 100-day tourism season linking culture, transport, commerce and the creative economy. Crypto Finance: Compound’s DAO approved a $52M push to bring more institutional-grade DeFi execution, aiming to meet compliance and technical expectations.

Philippines Economic Reform Push: Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan says the Marcos Jr. era must shift from household consumption and services toward investment, exports, agriculture and industry, arguing infrastructure spending hasn’t yet delivered competitiveness because of weak project selection, procurement and maintenance. China Demand Softening: July data shows China losing momentum as industrial output and retail sales trail expectations, with car sales sliding for a 10th straight month after slower subsidy distribution. UK Housing Cooling: Rightmove reports the biggest August fall in British house prices since 2018, with asking prices down and forecasts cut to 0% to -2% growth amid higher mortgage rates. Middle East Shipping Shock: The US-Iran conflict is raising oil and freight costs for Tanzania, hitting MSMEs that rely on fast, affordable imports. Russia War-Economy Warning: A senior Russian banker/economist was fired after warning Moscow won’t prevail in a war of attrition and faces a looming social crisis. Green Tech Deal: CSIR-IICT and Re Sustainability sign an MoU to scale plastic recycling and circular-economy environmental technologies. Africa Digital Exports: Pakistan logs record IT and IT-enabled services exports of $4.6bn, highlighting a growing “no-port” digital trade model. Business & Jobs Signals: Germany’s investment in the US drops sharply, while Canada launches an Advanced Manufacturing Workforce Alliance to address skilled-labor needs.

US Politics & Economy: A Financial Times/Focaldata poll finds most Americans say they’re worse off under Donald Trump, with 53% of registered voters reporting deteriorating finances since January 2025 and Trump’s net approval among Republicans down 8 points—fueling midterm worries as inflation still bites. Monetary Policy Outlook: BMO expects the Fed to hold rates through 2026, with cuts only in late 2027, while geopolitics (notably Iran) could keep inflation risks alive. US Labor Market Stress: The Wall Street Journal flags a “jobless bomb” dynamic: profits and revenues rise, but hiring nearly stalls, with July employment falling and labor-force participation slipping. Argentina Macro Debate: Economy Minister Luis Caputo publicly rebuts a Clarín column casting Milei’s government as fragile, using data and sarcasm to challenge the narrative. Nigeria Connectivity Push: Nigeria plans to connect all riverine communities to telecoms by mid-2027, with 3,700 rural facilities already being installed. Philippines Budget Governance: Economist Cielo Magno urges Congress to set clear rules for the Local Government Support Fund to prevent political patronage ahead of 2028 elections. Karnataka Growth Plan: India’s Karnataka targets a $3T economy by 2047 with AI hubs, AI education in schools, and major manufacturing and job-creation schemes. Qatar Logistics Strategy: Qatar doubles down on logistics to support e-commerce and regional distribution, stressing “small doesn’t mean simple” for delivery and market entry. Circular Economy: Qatar reports removal of 7,144 abandoned end-of-life vehicles in 2025, highlighting material recovery potential and circular waste management. Markets & AI Caution: Commentary warns AI earnings may look stronger than reality due to depreciation assumptions and stretched valuations, even as investors chase fundamentals.

Blue Economy Push: Malaysia’s Sabah will get special Budget 2027 focus on marine and aquaculture, with outcome-based funding aimed at downstream processing, supply chains and jobs. Jordan Fiscal Resilience: Jordan reports domestic revenues up to JD 5.625bn in the first seven months, despite regional shocks. Inflation Watch (Jordan): CPI rises to 2.70% in July, with transport and rents driving the increase. Social Security Compliance (Jordan): Jordan’s Social Security Corporation launches monitoring of security firms, demanding contract and worker enrolment submissions this week or fines up to 500 JOD per worker. FDI Update (Türkiye): Türkiye attracted $4.2bn in FDI in Jan–Jun, with wholesale/retail the biggest share, though inflows fell 31% year-on-year. easyJet Disruption: A cabin crew strike cancels about 100 flights from French airports over Aug. 15–16. Israel Growth Beat: Israel’s Q2 GDP jumps 15.4% annualized after an Iran-war-hit Q1. India $20T Debate: Equirus says India could reach a $20T economy by 2036 if rupee growth averages ~14.2% and reforms lift services-led expansion.

EU Climate-Economy Link: Eurostat says EU greenhouse gas emissions rose 0.3% in Q1 2026 to about 837m tonnes CO₂e, while GDP grew 0.8%, showing emissions can fall year-on-year even as the economy expands. Afghanistan-US Reset: Taliban officials urged the U.S. to restore its Kabul embassy and invest in projects like minerals, dams and roads, while ruling out any return of U.S. troops. Jordan Revenue Resilience: Jordan’s domestic revenues hit JD5.625b by end-July, up 1.9%, helped by stronger tax collection and a wider base. Gig Worker Protections (Australia): Uber Eats and DoorDash must meet new minimum safety-net pay and accident insurance standards for food-delivery workers, with dispute processes and representation rights. US Midterms & Iran Costs: GOP leaders warn the Iran conflict is complicating November prospects via higher everyday costs, with gas and staples front and center. Tariff Refund Boost (US): The administration’s tariff refunds are lifting corporate profits and could add about 0.2 point to Q3 GDP growth, with growth tracking near 4.3%. Egypt Debt Plan: IMF says Egypt aims to use at least half of divestment proceeds to cut public debt, targeting $4.7b over the program period. Ghana 24-Hour Economy Pushback: Critics say demolition for 24-hour markets is fueling frustration, arguing markets aren’t a new concept and disruption is avoidable. Namibia Merger Rules: Namibia’s competition watchdog plans to raise mandatory merger notification thresholds from N$30m to N$60m. India Oil Risk: Cutting Russian crude purchases by 50% could add $5-10b to India’s annual oil bill and lift inflation by ~0.3 point. Cuba Payment Friction: Local businesses in Holguín face a mismatch: retailers must accept CUP transfers, but suppliers often demand USD or cash, trapping merchants in unusable balances.

UK Economy & Inflation: Fitch kept the UK’s AA- rating but warned volatile energy prices will curb growth and lift inflation, with services activity contracting fastest since Jan 2023. Energy Prices & Markets: Oil futures jumped on tanker attacks and stalled Iran ceasefire talks, while European stocks ended mixed as investors trimmed risk. India Independence Day Push: PM Modi used the 80th Independence Day to lay out “Sapta Dhara” (manufacturing, tech, defence, green/blue economy and more) and touted India’s rapid transformation and digital expansion. Corporate Earnings: EaseMyTrip slid to a consolidated Q1 net loss of ₹11.7 crore despite revenue growth, as expenses surged. Water & Local Governance: Hawaii’s BLNR blocked a long-term East Maui water license for Mahi Pono, moving toward a contested case hearing. Electricity Trading Reform (Nepal): Nepal’s energy ministry and IPPAN backed amending the law to let private firms trade electricity, citing legal gaps. Workforce & Skills (Alabama): Alabama leaders stressed expanding technical training, including workforce programs tied to underserved and incarcerated populations. Housing & Risk (Istanbul): Istanbul’s urban renewal demolitions and rebuilds continue at scale to reduce earthquake risk. Tourism & Real Estate: Charleston-area hotel plans advanced, while Folly Beach sales rebounded as buyers accepted lower prices. Local Economy Planning (Ghana): Land shortages are forcing redesigns of Accra’s 24-hour economy markets, including a shift to a high-rise layout.

US Consumer Pressure: Retail sales fell 0.6% in July and Michigan sentiment dropped about 8%, adding to worries that affordability strains are biting spending. Credit Stress Watch: New York Fed data shows delinquencies are easing overall, but new delinquencies for auto loans and credit cards remain elevated. Markets Cautious: Stocks slipped as investors weighed the weaker retail and sentiment signals alongside Middle East uncertainty. Antitrust Overhaul in California: Democrats advanced AB 1776 only after agreeing to remove the “right of private action,” limiting enforcement to state prosecutions to reduce lawsuit risk for businesses. Crypto Volatility: Bitcoin fell despite cooler inflation prints, as investors still digest prior rate fears and ETF outflows. Policy Debate—Ghana 24-Hour Economy: A Suame MP called the initiative “poorly thought-through,” arguing it wasn’t planned before the 2024 election. Local Budget Reality—Santa Barbara Transit: Santa Barbara MTD cut service 3.6% starting Aug. 17 due to a growing budget deficit. Business & Growth Signals: CPPIB reported record net income, while Dutch growth is projected at 1.4% in 2026 before slowing. Food Safety: Manitoba/Canada recalled Tahina and Halva products due to undeclared peanut.

Malaysia Growth Momentum: Malaysia’s economy grew 6% in Q2 2026 (5.7% in 1H), led by domestic demand, stronger E&E exports, and services/manufacturing, with inflation at 1.9% and full-year growth still guided around 5%. Taiwan AI-Led Surge: Taiwan upgraded its 2026 forecast to 11.05% growth, citing booming AI demand, with exports seen rising 41.07% and prices near 2%. China Credit Signal: China’s yuan loans contracted again in July; new lending for Jan–Jul rose 10.38tn yuan, but weak household credit demand keeps recovery uncertain. India Inflation Watch: India’s wholesale inflation eased to 9.78% in July as fuel and power costs cooled, though food inflation stayed elevated. Global Trade Risk: A Foreign Policy piece warns China’s export overcapacity could push the world toward crisis if the surplus problem reaches a breaking point. Blue Economy Funding: The Philippines secured €200m ($230m) from France’s AFD for marine ecosystem protection and blue-economy reforms, targeting millions of coastal livelihoods. Tech & Jobs: Goldman says India faces limited AI job losses overall, with services most exposed; campus hiring in India is rebounding as IT firms step up fresher recruitment. Markets & Policy: India’s Sensex/Nifty slipped on energy and bond-yield uncertainty; Colorado relaunched an oversubscribed e-bike voucher lottery; and CBRE says state GCC policies could drive 1.38k centres and 12 lakh jobs by 2031.

Housing Costs & Regulation: Seattle City Council approved a ban on most “junk” rental fees, requiring landlords to list mandatory/optional charges upfront and limiting what can be charged for items like common-area access and pet-related fees. Digital Markets Law: Thailand is revising its Digital Platform Economy Act after judging the EU model too strict, with a shift toward assessing total take rates rather than focusing on one commission fee. Labor & Transit: Unifor locals in Victoria and Vancouver-area transit agencies issued 72-hour strike notices, setting up potential job action starting Monday. Sovereign Credit & Fiscal Risk: Fitch reaffirmed the U.S. at AA+ with a stable outlook, citing economic resilience and the dollar’s reserve role while flagging weaker job creation and widening deficits. Rates & Inflation Signals: U.S. producer prices were flat in July, easing Fed rate-hike bets, and mortgage rates fell toward mid-6% levels. Health Admin & Revenue: CMS’s 2027 AI-enabled prior authorization rule aims to retire fax-based workflows, while reporting warns Medicare Advantage plan mismatches and denials can quietly hit provider revenue. Energy Grid Politics: The U.S. is canceling Biden-era transmission corridor plans, reigniting debate over reliability, cost, and climate-driven priorities. Blue Economy Funding: The Philippines secured €200M from France’s AFD for marine ecosystem protection and livelihoods under its blue economy push.

UK Growth Watch: The ONS says UK GDP rose 0.4% in Q2 (0.3% in June), with services leading and some June lift from weather and the World Cup—though economists warn the resilience may fade if Middle East energy shocks persist. Turkey Monetary Stance: Türkiye’s central bank governor reiterated a strict policy path despite a small July CPI easing, targeting 26% end-2026 inflation and warning food and energy volatility could derail disinflation. India Markets & FX: India’s rupee slipped to 95.45 per dollar as foreign outflows and geopolitics weighed; stocks were mixed with Sensex up modestly while Nifty fell on sector pressure. India Trade & Tech Exports: India’s overall trade deficit widened 31.5% to $15.03bn in July; electronics exports jumped over 11-fold to Rs 4.24 lakh crore, supported by PLI and cluster schemes. Energy & Logistics: Maersk and DP World lifted outlooks as AI and the energy transition supported freight demand, even amid war and drought disruptions. Regional Power Deal: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye and Bulgaria are negotiating a new overland electricity transit corridor to boost connectivity and trade. Policy Oversight: Nepal’s finance committee pushed airport expansion and tighter management of immigration/customs facilities, while also flagging slow progress on key army-run road projects.

US Inflation Watch: July CPI rose just 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, easing pressure on the Fed as markets recalibrate the odds of a September rate hike. Housing & Cost of Living: Mortgage rates dipped after the CPI print, but first-time buyers remain locked out; in New Zealand, the property market stayed stuck with fewer sales and longer “days to sell,” while more resales are happening at a loss. Crypto & Markets Tech: Kalshi added DoubleZero’s Solana low-latency data feed for faster prediction-market trading; Wintermute plans a $1B AI-and-high-frequency push; Goldman moved into bitcoin income ETFs via a $2.25B NEOS buyout. Regulation & Compliance: India’s SEBI issued a show-cause notice to Paytm over the timing/classification of a December 2023 disclosure; California’s proposed antitrust expansion faces warnings of major economic costs. Global Development Finance: The ADB increased funding for the Philippines’ universal healthcare program by $250M to help offset oil-price shocks. Trade Barriers: New Zealand exporters face $9B+ a year in non-tariff compliance costs, with calls to cut unnecessary standards and certification hurdles.

National Invoicing System: Jordan’s tax chief said the National Electronic Invoicing System is designed to support the wider economy—improving transaction documentation and data accuracy—not just tax collection. Oil & Middle East Risk: Oil prices climbed as U.S.-Iran deal hopes faded and attacks in key straits raised supply-disruption fears, even as U.S. crude inventories rose. China Economic Legacy: Reuters marked the death of Zhu Rongji, the reform-era premier known for blunt warnings about debt, bad lending and corruption. Energy for the AI Economy: Rubicon Professional Services said it has surpassed 1 GW of installed battery storage capacity, aimed at boosting resilience for data centers and critical infrastructure. UK Tax Compliance Push: HMRC reported 436,000 of 864,000 affected sole traders/landlords met the first Making Tax Digital income-tax update deadline, with automatic sign-ups planned from September. South Africa Recovery Signals: South Africa’s PayInc index rose in July as fuel prices fell, though unemployment remains high. U.S. Travel Policy: The U.S. Travel Association warned the visa bond program could expand beyond current countries, hurting the travel industry and broader economy. Circular Economy Tech: A Scotland trial tested digital product passports in real remanufacturing to improve repair, reuse and recycling transparency.

US Fiscal Pressure: The US Treasury borrowed over $800B in three months, leaning more on short-term bills as average debt maturity shortens—raising rollover risk even without a recession. AI Finance Debate: A new report argues the AI credit boom is shifting risk toward private credit and insurers, with capped upside for lenders and uncertainty for capital providers. Markets & Credit: Wall Street’s mood wobbled as investors sold off, while a separate analysis highlights how AI is changing demand patterns more than jobs so far. Banking & Travel Demand: IHG reported stronger RevPAR in the Americas, pointing to resilient US spending and the World Cup, while Australia’s CBA flagged slowing growth from higher rates and inflation. Energy & Industry: UNIDO and CATL agreed to cooperate on circular economy and advanced batteries; Nigeria’s customs and Senate banking committee both pushed enforcement and financial-system strengthening. Regional Growth Snapshots: Singapore’s economy stayed fast-growing on AI-linked demand; Kazakhstan reported stable growth despite weaker oil output. Nigeria Policy & Trade: Lagos’ VAT-driven rise in federal allocations underscored non-oil revenue momentum, alongside new talks on refinery ownership and electricity regulation.

EU Heat Cost: Triodos Bank estimates 2026’s extreme heat and drought could shave about €180bn (around 1% of EU GDP) off EU growth, hitting labor productivity, cutting farm output, and disrupting rivers, power grids, and even nuclear cooling. Spain Wildfire Risk: Spain warns dry vegetation plus the solar eclipse crowds could spark major wildfires. Qatar Macro Snapshot: Qatar’s central bank says 2025 real GDP grew 2.9% and non-hydrocarbon GDP rose 4.8%, with inflation averaging 0.5% and tourism arrivals hitting 5.1m—evidence of diversification. Nepal EV Push: Nepal’s transport entrepreneurs and industry leaders demand stable, 10-year EV policy, scientific fare setting, and charging stations at petrol pumps, while warning about counterfeit parts and batteries. Nepal Accountability: Nepal’s auditor says arson-destroyed records from the Jenji movement can be rebuilt using bank statements and system data; separate updates say voucher and deposit records are safe. Smart Cell Case: Nepal police recommend charging former telecom regulator Bhupendra Bhandari and 22 others over alleged Smart Cell equipment fraud. India Economy Rank: IMF data cited in parliament puts India at $3.92tn nominal GDP, making it the world’s sixth-largest economy. Markets & Policy: Futures were muted as oil rose and inflation worries returned; RBI chief Malhotra flagged conflicts, trade friction, and cyberattacks as key risks to India’s economy. Taiwan K-shaped Debate: Taiwan’s AI/semiconductor boom is widening a K-shaped divide, renewing calls to rethink economic decoupling from the mainland. Deutsche Bank Renminbi Role: Deutsche Bank becomes the first European renminbi clearing bank, aiming to speed and cut costs for cross-border RMB payments into China. U.S. Food Rule: The FDA proposes making GRAS ingredient notifications mandatory to close a long-running transparency gap. U.S. Labor Fairness: A U.S. GAO-linked report highlights millions on Medicaid/SNAP working full-time, often in low-wage, schedule-unstable jobs.

Banking & Payments Deal: BMO and RBC agreed to sell jointly owned Moneris Solutions to Francisco Partners for about $2.0B cash (each holds 50%), while both banks will sign new long-term referral arrangements with Moneris. Corporate Finance: Intact Financial plans a $250M private placement of 6.133% limited recourse capital notes and intends to redeem certain rate-reset shares. Housing & Infrastructure: Canada named Evan Siddall inaugural chair of Build Canada Homes as the new federal agency scales affordable housing delivery; separately, Canada announced modernization funding for Inuvik (Mike Zubko) Airport. Energy Costs & Grid Pressure: Texas power bills are rising as infrastructure costs climb and data centers strain capacity, with rates up sharply since 2020. Digital Economy: India’s parliament opened the door to merchant fees on UPI transactions, shifting from a zero-fee model to fund infrastructure and cybersecurity. Local Growth: Federal money will expand access to the Des Moines River in Iowa, aiming to boost recreation jobs and tourism. AI & Macro: A Columbia economist warns the US could be in recession without AI data-center spending. Media & Consumer Pressure: NZ on Air’s survey finds free-to-air TV is regaining ground as subscription streaming use slips.

US Labor Market Signals Cooling: Revised data showed the U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July and unemployment fell to 4.1% mainly because more people left the workforce, while markets dialed back expectations for Fed cuts. Gold & Rates Watch: Gold pulled back after a seven-week high as investors waited for U.S. inflation data to gauge the Fed’s next move. China Trade Sentiment: Yicai’s chief economist confidence index edged up to 49.9 in August, pointing to a moderate recovery supported by policy, even as fixed-asset investment remains under pressure. Oil Prices & Hormuz Risk: Crude rose on uncertainty around reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran saying talks depend on U.S. conditions. MSME Push in Sri Lanka & Ghana: DFCC Bank launched DFCC Pragathi to bundle MSME finance and advisory, while Ghana’s Enterprises Agency reiterated support for entrepreneurs at its national MSME day. Digital Finance & Crypto Expansion: Robinhood launched zero-fee crypto trading in the UK with AI “Cortex Digests,” and Mastercard’s $1.8B acquisition of stablecoin firm BVNK keeps payments competition heating up. Housing & Affordability Pressure: Realtor.com flagged the hottest U.S. ZIP codes in the Northeast and Midwest, while analysts warned that higher borrowing costs and policy changes are reshaping affordability. Regional Logistics & Trade Routes: Maersk said a Red Sea/Suez service will resume via the Gemini Cooperation, and Jordan highlighted strong port performance as a logistics hub.