AGP Executive Report

Space IPO Watch: SpaceX filed for a record $75bn IPO at a $1.77tn valuation, pricing at $135 per share and targeting a June 12 launch. AI Chip Strain: US trade groups warned of a memory-chip shortage driven by AI data centers, urging the Trump administration to expand US chip capacity to protect autos, electronics and medical devices. US Services Pulse: May US services activity nearly stalled (S&P Global services PMI 50.7), with weaker new orders, higher costs and softer hiring. Middle East Risk & Markets: Iran–US/Hormuz tensions kept investors cautious; oil held near $96.9/bbl and equities slid in Asia. Policy & Governance: Nepal raised its cross-border duty-free limit for land travelers to Rs 500 (from Rs 100) and passed new parliamentary rules that speed impeachment timelines while carrying motions forward. Trade/Finance Ideas: Economist Thomas Piketty called for a new global financial architecture to end trade-surplus fixation, including a UN-backed currency and clearing system. Regional Growth: Poland forecast 3.5% growth in 2026 (EBRD), supported by EU funds but pressured by energy prices and trade tensions. Business & Jobs: ADB and Standard Chartered signed supply-chain finance risk-sharing deals in India to boost SME access.

Saudi Economy Resilience: The IMF says Saudi Arabia is holding up despite Middle East war shocks, helped by rerouting oil via the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports, though momentum is disrupted and non-oil activity is weighed down. US Inflation Pressure: New data shows the U.S. services sector’s costs jumped again, with operating expenses rising and inflation risks creeping back into everyday spending. AI “Chipflation”: Morgan Stanley warns soaring memory chip prices from AI demand could spread into broader margins, cloud costs, and producer prices. Canada Outlook: After a technical recession, the OECD expects growth to strengthen through 2026-27 as consumption, defense/infrastructure spending, and energy exports support recovery. India Finance & Real Estate: Kotak Alts closes a $1b real estate fund; SBI’s chief flags a stabilizing growth path if RBI holds rates. Policy & Industry: U.S. businesses back bipartisan EPA legislation to authorize the Safer Choice program; India’s rail sector gets a major railcar leasing JV; and New Mexico seeks developers for affordable housing on state land. Circular Economy Push: Navi Mumbai moves to manage and reuse POP idols as part of a wider recycle-hub plan.

Australia Economy: Australia’s March-quarter GDP grew just 0.3% as cyclone disruptions hit exports and net trade dragged growth, while business investment rose on a surge in machinery and equipment tied to data-centre expansion. China Monetary Policy: China’s central bank injected 50 billion yuan via treasury bond operations in May, keeping monthly liquidity support in a subdued 40–50 billion yuan range. AI in Industry: FAW-Volkswagen’s Tianjin plant is shifting toward an AI-powered smart factory, using robotics, AGVs and real-time production analytics to drive manufacturing upgrades. Border Economy Planning: Yuma’s port authority is repositioning for modern border infrastructure, using studies to measure how truck drivers’ spending boosts the local economy. EU-Armenia Trade/Resilience: The EU reaffirmed solidarity with Armenia and said it will explore short-term support while accelerating trade and energy ties amid Russia-linked economic pressure. Private Capital Deal: Apollo completed the sale of Altemira to MBK Partners, highlighting recycling expansion and a push for future acquisitions and possible IPO. Commodities Pulse: Gold slipped to ₹154,700 (-0.55%), silver fell to ₹265,478 (-0.46%), while crude oil rose to ₹9,154 (+2.28%). Canada Politics Meets Economy: Canada entered a technical recession, with Carney facing criticism as job losses and tariff uncertainty weigh on growth. US Space Economy: FAA cleared SpaceX for Starfall orbital return capsule test flights, aiming to build a repeatable cargo return capability. Nigeria Hardship Commentary: A Nigerian commentator blamed a “psychological trap” of hope and urged voters to act amid insecurity and economic strain. India Banking Watch: IndusInd Bank shares fell after reports of a whistleblower complaint alleging insider trading and governance issues. Cuba Sanctions & Tourism: Cuba defended GAESA’s role in the economy as US sanctions pressure tourism and hotel partnerships.

AI Governance: Trump signed an executive order asking tech firms for early government review of powerful new AI models before public release, with a shortened 30-day preview. US Trade: The administration proposed 25% tariffs on Brazil while also easing steel, aluminum and copper-related tariffs for some downstream products to 15%, aiming to cut costs for farmers and industrial users. Circular Economy: Maharashtra and Finland backed waste-to-value and circular-economy cooperation ahead of the World Circular Economy Forum in Asia. Digital Economy: The Philippines signed up to a regional digital economy pact (DEFA) to boost investment and make digital growth more inclusive. Investment Links: Kazakhstan and Hong Kong renewed plans to deepen investment cooperation via Baiterek and Bank of China (Hong Kong). Local Policy & Budgets: Nepal formed a new land-problem resolution committee after dissolving the prior commission, while Karnali’s budget build is underway with thousands of projects recommended. Business & Jobs: Arizona highlighted job growth resilience tied to the semiconductor boom, and Amazon India will add ads to Prime Music and end offline downloads from July 2.

IMF Cash Boost for Sri Lanka: The IMF completed its Fifth and Sixth Reviews under the EFF, unlocking $695m in direct support and lifting total IMF funding since the 2022 default to $2.4bn, though officials warn the economy still faces fresh risks. Local Livelihoods in Focus (Sabah): In Malaysia, lias rattan/bamboo handicrafts are scaling from a small women’s group to 80 participants across villages, turning heritage into community income. Energy & Grid Disruption (Nigeria): TCN extended maintenance on the Jos–Bauchi–Gombe 330kV line to finish optical ground wire work, meaning prolonged power outages in affected northern states. AI + Cyber-Security Shift: Enterprise AI is moving from pilots to measurable value, while AI-driven vulnerability discovery is forcing faster patching and changing cyber-defense assumptions. Trade & Markets: Euro zone firms show weak pricing power after the Iran shock; US–Iran tensions keep risk appetite cautious. Corporate Deals: Alba (Aluminium Bahrain) agreed a $2.2bn purchase of Aluminium Dunkerque; Mesabi Metallics will sell 50% of its royalty interest for $265m to fund production ramp-up. Payments Upgrade (Singapore): DBS launched “tap-to-phone” card acceptance via its MAX app for stall merchants.

Youth Jobs Push (UK): The UK government is creating 300,000 new work placements under a £2.5bn youth employment package, aiming to tackle a “lost generation” of young people not in work or training. Digital Payments (Nigeria): The Central Bank of Nigeria launched the Nigeria Payments System Vision (NPSV) 2028, targeting faster, safer digital transactions, interoperability, cybersecurity, and cross-border payments under AfCFTA. Asylum Procedure Shift (US): A report says Trump officials are drafting a rule that could let USCIS reject some asylum claims without interviews, based on written records and the one-year filing deadline. Health + AI (Global): A new push argues AI can help close health access gaps via remote diagnostics, triage, and earlier detection—especially where systems are under strain. Energy + Geopolitics (US/Iran): Moody’s Mark Zandi warns the US needs an Iran deal within about a week to avoid deeper economic pain as oil prices feed into consumer costs. Manufacturing Signal (US): ISM says US manufacturing hit a four-year high in May, with stronger orders but still-elevated input prices. Debt Relief (Zambia): Zambia’s eurobond buyback targets $1.3bn+ of expensive bonds to cut future debt costs and free budget space. Trade Update (Jordan): Jordan reports Q1 exports up 1.6% to JD 2.129bn, led by garments, potash, and pharma. Markets (Commodities): Gold slipped to ₹154,300 (-0.82%) while crude jumped +5.76% to ₹8,758.

China Manufacturing: China’s factory activity stalled in May as export orders fell and input costs rose, with the official PMI slipping to 50 from 50.3—another sign momentum is cooling. Middle East & Oil: Oil jumped more than 2% as Israel expanded operations in Lebanon, lifting WTI and Brent and adding to global inflation worries. South Africa Housing: South Africa’s Reserve Bank raised rates to 7%, but a property group warns higher borrowing costs can’t fix delivery bottlenecks—slowing sales, delaying projects, and hitting jobs. Armenia Trade & Energy: Armenia says its farm exports meet EU standards, while Russia-linked gas supply remains a concern as intermediaries and market pricing could make costs “very challenging.” Digital Integration in ASEAN: ASEAN wrapped up talks on the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement, targeting a November signing to boost regional digital trade. India Payments & Crypto: UPI crossed 23.2B transactions in May; Coinbase also resumed rupee-based crypto trading in India, expanding access while operating under AML rules. Tech & Jobs Debate: An MIT-linked economist argues AI isn’t proven to cause job losses, even as tech firms rebrand layoffs as “AI evolution.” Bangladesh Fuel: Bangladesh raised retail fuel prices again, likely feeding into transport and food inflation.

Sri Lanka Fuel Subsidy Exit: Sri Lanka raised petrol and diesel prices up to 6% after an IMF $695m instalment, with petrol at 434 rupees and diesel at 407, and plans to phase out fuel subsidies by September. Canada Recession Debate: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre demanded an emergency parliamentary economy debate after Statistics Canada data showed a technical recession risk from back-to-back GDP declines. Construction Costs Under Pressure: A Limerick TD warned “gouging” and oil-linked input volatility are driving up building costs for lower-income workers and local communities. India Exam Overhaul: An Indian parliamentary panel will meet June 1-2 to scrutinize NEET, NTA, CBT vs pen-and-paper exams, and transparency in testing. ASEAN Digital Push: Asean officials wrapped talks on the Digital Economy Framework Agreement, aiming for a more seamless, secure regional digital market. Tech, Finance & Crypto: US prosecutors charged a Google employee over a $1.2m Polymarket insider-trading scheme; New Zealand’s IRD is stepping up crypto tax enforcement. China Manufacturing Signal: China’s factory activity held flat in May at a PMI of 50.0 as weaker demand and higher energy costs weigh on orders. Qatar Digital Trust: Qatar’s digital-economy edge is tied to building “digital trust,” not just cybersecurity spending, according to an industry executive.

ASEAN Digital Integration: ASEAN has wrapped talks on the region’s first comprehensive digital economy pact, the ASEAN DEFA, with signing targeted for November and a goal to lift the bloc’s digital economy from $1T by 2030 to potentially $2T. Crypto Enforcement & Security: The U.S. seized about $1B in Iranian-linked crypto under “Operation Economic Fury,” while the SEC sued a Texas man over a $12.3M alleged scheme using fake AI trading bots and promised returns. Onchain Finance Risk: Grayscale says Hyperliquid could become a “financial services juggernaut,” but CertiK warns TradFi is held back by frequent AI-driven hacks and smart-contract vulnerabilities. Nepal Budget Shockwaves: Nepal’s budget cuts taxes for IT exports and introduces an AI-enabled e-assessment system, but also raises EV import/customs-based duties and adds VAT on electricity consumption—sparking political pushback. Digital Skills Push: Nigeria’s First Lady inaugurated a N1bn ICT Experience Centre at EKSU to expand AI-ready learning and research. Energy & Inflation Pressure: Ghana’s fire service warned that safety lapses in the Kpone industrial enclave could threaten oil, gas and power generation, while U.S. consumers are cutting back as gasoline tops $4.50 a gallon amid the Iran-war-driven supply squeeze.

Workplace Safety Push (Kenya): Kenya highlights OSH as a right, citing 2.3m annual work-related deaths and pointing to enforcement bodies like DOSHS. Privatization Watch (Serbia): Serbia’s economy ministry lists state firms where tenders could start in 2026, while some big names remain stuck due to litigation and restitution. Tax Changes (Nepal): Nepal raises capital gains tax on share trading and real estate, with higher rates for shorter holding periods, alongside broader excise duty hikes. Fuel Cost Pressure (India): Transporters urge India’s government to cut tolls and VAT after fuel price jumps squeeze freight margins. Global Energy Risk (IMF/World Bank/IEA/WTO): Middle East shipping disruptions threaten oil inventories, energy security, and food costs worldwide. Nigeria Economy Narrative (Tinubu): Tinubu says subsidy removal prevented bankruptcy and that states no longer rely on federal salary support. USMCA Talks (Mexico-U.S.): Mexico and the U.S. complete the first review round on autos, steel/aluminum, and regional economic security; next talks set for mid-June. Armenia Social Services Plan: An Armenian economist warns of post-election centralization and closures of schools and hospitals. AI & IPO Buzz (OpenAI): OpenAI reportedly discusses IPO underwriters including Citigroup and JPMorgan. Night-Time Economy Plan (UK): West Midlands unveils a 25-point plan to revive nightlife via safety, transport, and support for venues. Rupee Moves (India): The rupee closes near 95 per dollar after RBI action and calmer Iran-related market nerves. Startup Funding (India): Indian startup funding totals $52m across 15 deals, down 44% week-on-week, with ecommerce leading.

Canada Recession Debate: Statistics Canada reported GDP flat then down at an annualized -0.1% in Q1, sparking “technical recession” arguments as Poilievre blamed Carney’s policies and economists urged caution. US Trade & Rates: The US goods trade deficit narrowed in April as exports surged, while mortgage rates climbed to 6.53%—a reminder that higher oil-linked inflation risks are still feeding borrowing costs. Brazil Growth Pickup: Brazil’s economy expanded 1.1% in Q1 (1.8% year-on-year), led by mining and construction, with exports down and imports up. Croatia Streak: Croatia extended growth to 21 straight quarters, but the pace slowed to 2.2% in Q1 as consumption stayed the main driver. Energy & Climate: Armenia discussed expanding greenhouse support and export diversification; Lesotho raised its central bank rate amid Middle East-driven fuel and shipping shocks; and smart-grid upgrades were highlighted as a path to cut oil dependence. Circular Economy Push: Asean/East Asia SMEs get new circular-economy tools via a regional partnership, including a “circular business check.”

RBI & Cash Integrity: India’s ₹2,000 note withdrawal nears completion, with 98.45% of value returned and only ₹5,501 crore still outstanding as of March 2026; meanwhile counterfeit ₹500 notes jumped 20.5% to 1.42 lakh in 2025-26, keeping pressure on cash security. Monetary Policy & Fiscal Spillover: RBI surplus transfer to the government hit a record ₹2.86 lakh crore for 2025-26, while the central bank’s Annual Report also points to India’s 7.6% 2025-26 growth and a 6.9% 2026-27 projection. Banking Risk Watch: Bank fraud cases fell to 10,114 in 2025-26, but reported value rose to ₹48,021 crore—highlighting reporting reclassification effects. Corporate & Tech: Loop Industries signed an MoU for its first commercial recycled PET plant in Gujarat, aiming to accelerate circular packaging in India. Energy & Markets: Mixed trading in India’s energy and metal stocks; Confidence Petroleum led gains while Gujarat State Petronet slid. Global Energy Buffering: The Philippines is setting up a systematic strategic petroleum reserve via POWERR Asia to reduce exposure to volatile imports and geopolitical shocks. Islamic Finance: Malaysia retained the top spot in the world’s Islamic economy ranking for 2025, citing its halal, finance, and governance ecosystem.

US Inflation Surge: April inflation hit the fastest pace in three years, driven by Iran-war energy pressures, squeezing household purchasing power and raising questions about how long the Fed can keep rates steady. Global Outlook Deteriorates: The WEF says nearly nine in ten chief economists expect weaker growth ahead, with Middle East risks and Strait of Hormuz disruption concerns feeding higher inflation fears. Central Bank Independence: In the US, economists and officials are stressing the need for an independent Federal Reserve as the new chair takes over. Canada Trade Pressure: RBC flags a “period of volatility” for credit demand amid North America trade uncertainty and ongoing Middle East conflict. South Africa Rates Watch: Markets brace for a SARB decision as economists expect another 25 bps move and consumers face rising living costs. Ethiopia AI Push: Ethiopia plans an AI university starting in 2026/2027 to build skills and support its Digital Ethiopia agenda. Ocean Economy: A new report argues the ocean economy is growing fast but needs resilience planning against shocks like pandemics and maritime disruptions. Uzbekistan Deals: Uzbekistan signs $3.5bn in Chinese-backed infrastructure agreements and completes WTO accession talks with India. Nepal Infrastructure & Trade Ops: Nepal’s BP Highway reconstruction accelerates with Japan support, while customs clearance pauses on budget day to update tax rates. Tourism Soft Patch: Philippines tourism’s GDP share fell to 8.1% in 2025, the lowest in years, reflecting weaker foreign visitor spending.

Brazil Labor Reform: Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies advanced a constitutional change to cut the workweek from 44 to 40 hours and add a second rest day, a pre-election win for President Lula that would affect over 35 million workers. Armenia Energy Deal: Armenia’s PM Pashinyan says a gas pipeline via the TRIPP route will pass through the country, giving Armenia “its own gas” and transit payments in gas, while the foreign ministry says it received a Russian energy ministry letter on the agreement. Zimbabwe Monetary Literacy: The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe launched a schools monetary policy challenge to boost financial literacy, letting students simulate central bank roles as the country works to stabilize currency and prices. Zambia Mining Impact: First Quantum Minerals says it delivered $3.459bn in direct contribution to Zambia’s economy in 2025, including $901.6m to government via taxes and royalties. Central Banking Under Pressure: A new analysis warns that post-crisis monetary frameworks are weakening policy transmission and blurring fiscal vs monetary roles, complicating inflation control. New Zealand Rates Decision: RBNZ Governor Anna Breman defended keeping the OCR at 2.25% despite inflation risks, citing near-term cost pressures like fuel. Oil and Inflation Risks: Oil prices rebounded nearly 4% as US-Iran tensions revived supply fears, with economists warning the squeeze will keep hitting household budgets. Singapore Logistics Costs: A report ranks Singapore among Asia-Pacific’s priciest logistics markets, with rents supported by port and connectivity strength. Crypto/Payments Regulation: Mastercard secured a New York BitLicense to expand stablecoin and digital payment infrastructure, while regulators and competition authorities continue tightening oversight across markets.

Armenia-EAEU Tensions: Russia’s Rosatom chief warned Armenia could lose nuclear energy know-how if it abandons Russian technology, urging a partner decision beyond 2036 by 2026–27. Regulatory Trade: Armenia and Rosselkhoznadzor finished veterinary and phytosanitary inspections, agreeing on continued border control to keep exports to Russia flowing. Employment Law Shockwaves (UK): Britain’s employment tribunal system is under strain as claims rise sharply, with upcoming Employment Rights Act changes (guaranteed hours, tighter dismissal rules) set to reshape hiring and scheduling. Labor Market Politics: Reform UK’s push to repeal parts of the Employment Rights Act is drawing fresh debate over flexibility for sectors that rely on variable staffing. Corporate Pay & Morale: Marks & Spencer scrapped bonuses for all staff after a cyber incident hit profits, highlighting how pay decisions can quickly damage trust. AI & Business Tools: The Economist launched a native ChatGPT app for interactive polling graphs, while a neurotech firm ReVision Implant raised €4mn ahead of human trials. Tech Funding & Inclusion: Neurodivergent workers say employers must do more for inclusion, and a neurodiversity-support survey points to practical workplace and software fixes. Local Growth (US): The Soccer Tournament returns to Cary, expected to generate over $10m for the Triangle economy.

Political Shift in Nigeria: Ex-minister Isa Ali Pantami has dumped the APC and won the PDP governorship ticket in Gombe, setting up a 2027 face-off with APC’s Jamilu Gwamna. Fuel-Price Shock Hits Food and Transport: Work-from-home rules are credited with cutting subsidized Pertalite use by ~9%, but fertilizer and fuel costs are still jolting farm economics and raising inflation pressure. Monetary Policy Under Strain: ECB board member Isabel Schnabel says a June rate hike is needed even if Iran peace talks progress, while Indian economists warn RBI may stay “wait-and-watch” as fuel-driven inflation could reach ~5% by June. Corporate and Market Signals: Xiaomi’s Q1 net profit more than halved as component costs rose and competition intensified; in the Netherlands, bankruptcies fell year-on-year in April. Energy and Trade Risk: With Hormuz disruptions dragging on, experts warn India faces knock-on hits to manufacturing, agriculture, and food security.