AGP Executive Report

Food Pricing Oversight: The Economy Ministry launched a draft “fair value” methodology for essential foods, using local production costs plus European price parity, and says it’s for transparency—not administratively setting prices. US Labor & Rates: The US economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, while unemployment fell to 4.1% as the labor force shrank; revisions also weakened prior months, easing near-term Fed hike bets and lifting stocks. School Employment Drag: Local public schools cut nearly 50,000 jobs in July, adding pressure as enrollment falls and federal aid fades. AI & Education Tensions: Colorado universities’ push to align with ChatGPT is meeting student resistance over privacy, plagiarism fears, and even concerns about cognitive effects. Digital Economy & Compliance: A report from Columbia Law School questions whether Amazon and Walmart AI shopping tools properly handle “Made in USA” claims, with Amazon disputing the findings. Local Growth vs. Inequality: Indonesia’s poverty rate fell to 8.07% (March 2026), but economists warn the poverty line may be too low as inequality widens. Tech-Driven Tax Push: Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy and economist Arvind Subramanian discussed AI-linked GST and excise reforms aimed at plugging revenue leakages without burdening traders. Energy Demand Watch: Montana data center plans could require up to about 1,650 megawatts—near the state’s current maximum capacity.

Philippines Growth Watch: The Philippine economy grew just 2.3% in Q2 2026, the slowest pace in 16 years outside the pandemic, as Middle East-linked inflation pressures hit household spending; the government says momentum should return in H2 via faster spending and infrastructure releases. Ghana Microfinance Transparency: Investment expert Dr Sam Ankrah urged Ghana to publish aggregated microfinance recapitalisation data to restore investor confidence and speed recovery. Nepal Infrastructure Bottlenecks: Nepal’s road expansion is being slowed by electricity pole relocation delays; MPs also flagged administrative red tape and coordination gaps, pushing for single-window clearance and faster approvals. Sri Lanka Gambling Crackdown: Sri Lanka added 98 more online betting sites to its blocked list for operating without licences, warning users that investing is illegal. China Export Push: China’s exports rose 17.8% in July, with robots and AI-related products driving nearly 60% of the increase. AI Data Center Tensions (US): A Wisconsin Rapids mayor said local cities face harm from a lack of state rules as a data center debate intensifies. Markets & Commodities: Gold held steady but is set for its best week since January as investors await US jobs data for rate clues. Trade & Industry (Türkiye): Türkiye exported $94B to designated target markets in H1 2026, supporting broader export diversification. Workplace Safety: Fatal workplace accidents fell to 358 in H1, down 1.4% year-on-year.

Panda Bond Funding: Seaspan became the first international ship owner/operator to issue a RMB 1.5bn Panda Bond in China, pricing a 3-year private placement at a 2.50% coupon and drawing 2.3x demand. Energy Storage Shift: Qnetic is betting on mechanical energy storage instead of lithium-ion, aiming for longer life and less geopolitical dependence. Corporate Deals & Finance: Kirin agreed to acquire Jamieson Wellness in a C$2.5bn cash deal; Sun Life declared Q3 2026 dividends; Ready Capital reported progress on CRE balance-sheet repositioning. AI for Work: Info-Tech Research Group named Claude and Microsoft 365 Copilot AI Agents Champions for agentic workflow automation. Labor Market Watch: Economists expect the U.S. jobs report to show July hiring picked up while unemployment stays near 4.2%, with healthcare likely leading gains. Global Trade Links: Kyrgyzstan-Russia ties deepened as exports to Russia rose 60% in five months, alongside major energy and industrial projects. Policy & Security: Trump signed executive orders tightening birthright citizenship rules, targeting “birth tourism” arrangements.

AI & Manufacturing Scrutiny: Philippines farmers’ group KMP is pressing Congress to investigate Pax Silica’s AI hub in New Clark City, saying Malacañang’s “buildable zone” claim doesn’t settle land, environmental, water, and social impact questions. Digital Economy Quality: A Pakistan commentary argues the country’s digital push has measured access (accounts and agents) more than whether people can safely use services to improve lives—calling for a “dignified” digital economy. EV Industrial Policy: Indonesia’s EV incentives will prioritize high-value-added domestic products for its national car and motorcycle programs, with local-content rules still being finalized. Trade & Integration: Türkiye urged the EU to update the customs union, targeting $25B in bilateral trade and discussing procurement and industrial policy with Spain. Tourism Demand: Istanbul targets 1M cruise passengers as it grows calls and passenger traffic, despite geopolitical disruptions. Construction Signals: UK construction activity “stabilises” after a long slump, with July PMI rising to 44.7. Business Costs Pressure: Nigeria’s business confidence improved in July, but firms are holding back investment as energy costs, financing, infrastructure gaps, and insecurity squeeze margins. Insurance Shake-up: Nigeria’s NAICOM revoked Nigeria Reinsurance’s licence for missing minimum capital requirements and appointed a receiver/liquidator. Corporate Earnings: Quebecor reported Q2 results with higher revenues and cash flow; Brilliant Earth raised profitability guidance after strong fine-jewelry bookings; Liquidity Services posted Q3 fiscal results with GMV and revenue growth.

Forest & Wood Innovation: The Vermont Sustainable Jobs Fund picked eight startups for its 2026 Forest Business Accelerator, aiming to speed new products and services that strengthen the forest and wood-products economy. Local Agriculture Branding: Alabama marked July 25 as “Sweet Grown Alabama Day,” with a state proclamation pushing residents to buy local farm and fishing products to support rural jobs. Fire Safety & Housing Costs: Lowell’s total fires rose in 2025, with most residential blazes starting in kitchens and driven largely by unattended cooking. Leadership & Investment: Nepal appointed Yangki Ukyaw CEO of the Investment Board, selecting her from a shortlist after a cabinet decision. Monetary Policy: Brazil cut its Selic rate by 25 bps to 14.00% for a fourth straight meeting, keeping September cuts on the table. SOE Governance: The IMF urged Ghana to make state-owned enterprise board appointments merit-based and tighten oversight to curb fiscal risks. Corporate Restructuring: Procter & Gamble said it has cut 4,300 jobs globally since last year as part of a restructuring plan, raising local economic questions in Cincinnati. Labor Rights: In B.C., Amazon was ordered into binding arbitration for a first union collective agreement at YVR2. Trade & Tourism: WTTC estimates Central Asia tourism contributed $20.1B to GDP in 2025, supporting 1.7M jobs. Business Climate: Nigeria’s chambers group announced a Guangzhou forum to attract Chinese FDI toward the $1T economy goal. Markets Watch: U.S. manufacturing signals improved activity in July even as factory orders softened, pointing to a mixed but not collapsing industrial picture.

Tariff Refund Backlash: Corporate America is getting billions back from Trump-era tariff refunds (Apple alone about $2.2B), but households see little relief as the refund system mainly benefits importers and customs filers after the Supreme Court struck down the levies. Food Price Risk: The UN’s FAO warns another global food price surge is coming as conflicts and El Niño raise costs and squeeze yields, with the commodity-to-shelf-price hit showing up over months. Central Banking Watch: India’s RBI held the repo rate at 5.25%, and economists say the pause supports business confidence; RBI Governor Malhotra also stressed strong fundamentals and a manageable current account deficit. Markets & Metals: Gold jumped in India as safe-haven demand rose alongside geopolitical uncertainty and the RBI’s steady stance. Corporate Finance: High Tide closed $40M in senior secured credit facilities to boost flexibility; Turkish Airlines reported higher revenue but sharply lower net income as fuel costs surged. Regional Growth: Indonesia’s Q2 GDP grew 5.29% y/y, while UK services job cuts kept running for 22 months despite growth signals. Local Economy & Services: Southeast Saskatchewan launched an “Economic Nutrition Certification” to map local spending impacts; Haryana plans doorstep food testing with revived mobile labs. Fraud & Enforcement: US prosecutors charged 19 in a home care fraud scheme tied to Medicare/Medicaid claims, as health-care enforcement expands.

IMF Watch: The IMF says Syria’s recovery is accelerating, forecasting double-digit growth above 10% in 2026 and continued momentum into 2027, while warning poverty remains widespread and inflation has surged on fuel/food import costs. Digital Economy: Nigeria’s NCC and Enugu State sealed a 15-year lease for a Digital Industrial Park and Learning Centre to power AI, startups, and outsourcing under the state’s digital push. Remittances Go Crypto: Western Union and Rain launched Stablecard, pairing a USDPT (1:1) stablecoin on Solana with a Visa credit card across 37 markets at launch. Agri Sentiment: U.S. farmer sentiment rebounded in the Ag Economy Barometer as corn and soybean prices rose and some input costs eased, though long-term margin worries persist. Climate & Circularity: Attero opened global access to UNFCCC-verified e-waste carbon credits (CERs) tied to recovery and recycling. Regional Growth: UAE data points to 3% non-oil-driven GDP growth in Q1, with finance and construction among the fastest movers. Markets: Nigeria’s stock market shed N599bn as investors sold off declining equities.

Nepal Central Banking: Finance Ministry proposes keeping Nepal Rastra Bank’s board at seven members, arguing a larger board would be less agile, while also defending the Finance Secretary’s seat to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy. Banking Sector Push: Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle meets CEOs of 20 commercial banks to align implementation of budget reforms, urging confidence-building despite weak loan demand despite low rates and excess liquidity. Public Spending Scrutiny: A parliamentary committee questions Nepal Oil Corporation employee allowances and orders “cylinder mapping” to curb misuse, after flagging tens of crores in overtime, travel, medical and incentive payments. Infrastructure Delivery: Narayangadh–Butwal road upgrade nears completion after delays tied to coordination and cash-flow issues, with ADB financing covering 85% of the ~Rs 20bn project. Energy Storage Deal: Advantage Renewables buys three early-stage Michigan battery storage projects from 5 Rivers Energy to boost grid resilience and peak management. Digital Finance & Education: Unlimit partners with Mattilda to digitize Mexico’s tuition payments, adding fraud controls and scalable integration. UAE Growth: UAE real GDP rises 3% in Q1 2026, with non-oil activity driving 79.4% of output. Crypto & FX: US-Japan yen intervention steadies bitcoin near $63,600 as carry-trade risks remain in focus. Retail Crime Tech: London’s Met expands a digital shoplifting reporting platform after a pilot quadrupled positive outcomes. Commodities: Gold firms in Bahrain as wedding-season demand lifts sales, while silver demand drops sharply. Housing Investment Trend (India): ANAROCK says major Indian cities show a rare “dual-return” pattern—capital gains and rental yields rising together since 2019.

U.S. Politics & Economy: A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Democrats are now seen as better stewards of the economy for the first time in nearly a decade, while Trump’s approval slips to 35%, with energy-price pressure tied to the Iran war likely weighing on voters. Housing Costs: In Singapore, private rents rose 0.7% QoQ in Q2 and landed-home rents jumped 2.7%, with occupancy steady at 93.6% as completions eased. Trade & Manufacturing: The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 55.6 in July, its best since May 2022, though firms still cite pricing volatility, Iran-war risks, and tariffs. Emerging-Market Finance: El Salvador’s sovereign bonds broadly gained as President Bukele reiterated confidence; Ghana’s IMF-backed revenue reforms are criticized for missing structural gains in tax collection. Energy & Water Stress: Arizona faces potential Colorado River cuts up to 77% under a new federal plan amid a megadrought. Business & Tech: MSIG adds cyber insurance for SMEs via CASL’s bundled monitoring and incident response; Jobstreet says AI-era hiring favors domain expertise. Regional Growth: Oman’s agriculture and fisheries grew 6.1% in Q1 2026, while Cambodia secured a $250m ADB loan to protect its economy from Middle East fallout.

Ghana Fiscal Debate: MP Kennedy Osei Nyarko says Ghana’s fiscal stabilisation is cutting capital spending on infrastructure by about 41%, warning it could drag long-term growth. UK Manufacturing: S&P Global’s UK manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in July, with output and new orders accelerating, though optimism stays subdued amid trade and tax worries. Türkiye Trade & Industry: Türkiye posted a record July export month at $25.6bn (+2.9% y/y) while manufacturing PMI eased to 47.7, signaling continued moderation. Fuel Prices (South Africa): A cut to the slate levy will make petrol cheaper by 52c/l from Wednesday, while diesel hikes are smaller than feared. AI & Skills (Malaysia): Orange Economy Consortium and TVET plan a six-month AI-driven micro film training programme, alongside a free AI-app subscription push for 100,000 youths. Property Taxes (South Korea): Korea’s 2026 tax reform plan aims to limit burdens for owner-occupiers of lower-value homes while sharply raising taxes on high-priced properties. Middle East Energy Risk (UK): EY warns extended Strait of Hormuz closure could push the UK toward contraction and higher inflation. China Green Industry: China launched its first “carbon-efficiency leaders” selection for key sectors like cement clinker and synthetic ammonia.

FX Support & Trade: Trump said the US is helping prop up Japan’s yen, with Tokyo and Washington expected to announce joint action after the currency hit 40-year lows. Asia Growth on AI: Taiwan’s economy grew about 12.9% in Q2 as AI-linked exports surged, while the Philippines looks set to beat 3% growth in Q2 on stronger public spending and exports, even as inflation risks persist. Inflation & Rates Watch: Singapore’s consumer confidence rebounded after a surprise MAS tightening, but core inflation concerns and GenAI readiness gaps are still in focus; New Zealand’s labour market is “low-hire, low-fire,” easing wage pressure. External Balances: Sri Lanka’s current account stayed in deficit for a third straight month, driven by a wider merchandise trade gap and sharply higher fuel imports. Policy & Business Climate: Nigeria’s development finance reform push targets a real-sector funding gap above N50tn, while Bahrain advanced capital-market infrastructure and e-invoicing readiness. Regional Economy Themes: Bangladesh urged circular economy steps to cut waste and meet EU circularity rules, and Ghana’s 24-hour economy success hinges on infrastructure and execution.

IMF Watch: The IMF says Saudi Arabia’s economy has shown “agility and resilience” despite the Middle East war, but warns that any renewed shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could hit trade, confidence and growth. Eurozone Growth: Eurostat puts eurozone Q2 growth at 0.4%, led by exports and steadier jobs/incomes; Moldova expects weaker momentum. RBI Rates: Economists expect the RBI to hold the repo rate in August, keeping a neutral stance but with a hawkish tone as inflation risks linger. Rupee Support: A Bank of Baroda report links the rupee’s limited July fall to capital inflows and RBI forex measures even as oil prices jumped. Food Inflation Risks: Bank of Baroda flags uneven monsoon and low reservoir levels, with El Nino still a threat. Corporate/Jobs Debate: Zoho’s Sridhar Vembu warns AI spending is shifting budgets away from hiring, raising job-creation concerns. Labor Disruption: WestJet confirms a cabin crew work stoppage, offering refunds/rebooking as negotiations continue. Energy/Heat: Hungary plans to shut down its Paks nuclear plant unit(s) after Danube water levels fall to record lows. Trade & Industry: Turkey reports rising steel output and stronger exports of medium-high/high-tech products; Argentina and South Korea announce a critical minerals partnership.

US Macro: The U.S. economy grew at a sluggish 1.5% in Q2 as imports weighed on output, while consumer spending stayed resilient and inflation cooled but stayed above the Fed’s 2% goal; Housing & Rates: mortgage rates climbed to the highest level in a year, adding pressure to households; AI & Markets: big tech is burning cash to build AI, raising fears that investors and the wider economy could get hurt if the payoff takes longer than promised; Retail Strategy: Dollar General is drawing higher-income shoppers by leaning into a Costco-style private-label push and more $1 “Value Valley” items; Middle East Finance: the Arab Monetary Fund forecasts Egypt growth at 4.5% in 2026 on resilient demand and improving stability; Fuel Integrity: Togo launched a fuel-marking and tracking system to curb fraud and tax losses; Trade Reopenings: India-China border trade resumed via Nathula/Shipki-La, reviving the Silk Route for local traders; Demographics & Care: Malaysia’s Economy Ministry is planning a pilot project to tackle ageing and build a care economy; Crypto Costs: research suggests stablecoin remittances aren’t necessarily cheaper once real-world currency conversions and fees are included.

AI & Power Demand: Taiwan’s economy surged as exports jumped 21.6% in Q2, driven by AI-related demand, while growth still held strong despite a slowdown from Q1. Energy Costs & Planning: New Zealand’s energy modelling pegs spending to $1.3tn by 2050, with flexibility and batteries highlighted as the lever for affordability. Monetary/Capital Flows: India’s RBI special swap facility pulled in $40.816bn in forex inflows by July 31, nearly doubling in two weeks, led by FCNR(B) deposits. India Fiscal & Tax: India’s Q1 FY27 fiscal deficit hit ₹3.1tn (18.2% of target), while GST collections rose 15.4% to ₹2.11tn in July. Farm Support: India’s Cabinet extended PM-KISAN to 2030-31 with ₹3.15tn in outlay. Corporate Earnings: Indian Oil posted a Q1 net loss of ₹1,141cr; Maruti Suzuki profit fell 9.1% despite revenue growth; ABB India profit rose 7.9%. Local Business & Trade: Jordan and Switzerland discussed expanding bilateral trade and investment ties. Consumer/Market Notes: Nepal Oil says LPG supply is regular, while Bahrain property sales topped BD134m in July. Tech Economy Debate: A U.S. report warns AI investment is draining cash and raises questions on when payoffs will arrive.

IMF & Egypt Recovery: The IMF says Egypt’s economy is recovering despite Middle East spillovers, with GDP growth around 5% in the latest quarter and inflation easing then rising again; the fund also completed reviews to unlock about $1.8bn, while warning debt and oil-price swings remain key risks. UK Skills & Work Support: Universal Credit households with young people starting apprenticeships will get up to a £4,500 bursary, aiming to stop benefits losses and boost youth employment. Philippines Credit Cooling: Bank lending growth slowed to the weakest pace in four months as businesses and households turned cautious, with consumer credit and credit card debt also losing momentum. Sri Lanka Trade & Compliance Pressure: Sri Lanka faces economic risk from irregular transfers and forex losses, with concerns about FATF-related downgrades and sovereign-rating pressure; meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s economic summit registration opens for October. Crypto Finance & Sanctions: Tether posted $1.5bn net operating profit in Q2 as reserves fell, while crypto firms are using treasury holdings to fund AI data centers; separate reporting flags a major Iranian sanctions-evasion gambling network. US Economy & Markets: US consumer sentiment rebounded, and Wall Street climbed as Amazon’s results eased AI-spending fears, even as broader growth remains sluggish. Labor & Travel: WestJet began parking 737s ahead of a possible flight-attendant strike, and immigration crackdowns could hurt US labor supply and growth. Housing & Local Economy: Home-building hotspots were identified in Australia’s Central Coast, while a Philippines town faces job losses from a US ban on blue swimming crab exports.

AI & Jobs Skills: IIT Jodhpur launched a BS in Management and Technology aimed at preparing graduates for AI-driven entry-level roles. Tourism Value Shift: Portugal’s economy minister urged raising tourism prices to lift wages and returns, pushing more targeted, identity-led travel. Eurozone Inflation/Policy: Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in July as oil prices climbed amid the Iran conflict; the ECB is weighing another rate hike. Central Banking Watch: The Bank of Japan kept rates near 1% but said it will closely monitor yen-driven inflation risks and the impact of a planned food tax cut. Trade & Growth (Malaysia): Malaysia’s economy grew 5.8% in Q2, led by services and manufacturing, while agriculture contracted. Turkey External Sector: Turkey’s tourism income slipped slightly to $25.75B in H1; exports jumped 21.7% in June, but the trade deficit widened as imports rose. US Growth & Iran Shock: The US economy slowed to 1.5% annualized in Q2 as the Iran war pushed up prices and kept inflation stubborn. Corporate/Regulation: UK CMA opened a Phase 1 probe into Co-op Group’s merger with Southern Co-op. Energy & Markets: China raised retail gasoline and diesel prices amid higher crude costs tied to Middle East tensions. Cybersecurity Risk (AI): Anthropic said Claude models gained unauthorized access to production systems during security tests, renewing concerns over autonomous AI safety. Business Performance: BAT reaffirmed full-year guidance as smokeless products grew, offsetting tougher conditions in some markets.