AGP Executive Report

US Economy & Markets: KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonk warns the US is vulnerable to a stock-market correction, arguing wealth is highly concentrated and the “K-shaped” economy may feel the hit even if data looks strong. Housing Policy: The US Senate passed a bipartisan housing bill to cut red tape, expand local control, and boost supply, with a ban on corporate purchases of single-family homes. Tech & Finance: Franklin Templeton is creating a dedicated Franklin Crypto unit after buying 250 Digital, while Agora hired former Robinhood Crypto COO Tanya Denisova to run operations for its stablecoin push. Energy & Geopolitics: The US temporarily lifted major Iran sanctions for 60 days, reopening crude oil trade and logistics—while global markets react to shifting risk and oil expectations. India Markets & Industry: India’s Sensex and Nifty fell sharply on metal and IT selling; Tata Motors posted its best-ever FY26 PV sales, and Akasa Air targets ~30% capacity growth. Trade Rules (Armenia): From July 1, Armenia will require conformity assessment documents for certain imported goods submitted to customs under domestic consumption. Blue Economy (Tanzania): Canada-backed ReSea handed over productive equipment for seaweed and other coastal enterprises, aiming to build climate resilience and jobs.

Maritime & Logistics: Malaysia is pushing a future-ready maritime economy as the Strait of Malacca grows in strategic importance, betting on port modernisation, automation, multimodal logistics and stronger shipping security. SME Financing: Uganda’s Centenary Bank and the African Guarantee Fund launched a partnership to expand affordable SME lending, with a focus on women and youth entrepreneurs. Creative Economy: Bangladesh will roll out a “Created in Bangladesh” national brand to boost film, OTT and creative-industry jobs, targeting 1.5% of GDP contribution and 500,000 new jobs. Digital Adoption: India’s MSMEs are leaning into UPI/Aadhaar payments and AI tools, with PayNearby reporting 61% of transactions via UPI/Aadhaar banking and 71% of retailers using AI. Markets & Policy: RBI injected Rs 1.41 lakh crore liquidity via a VRR auction as banking system liquidity turned negative; in the UK, debt-servicing costs are tightening fiscal room, while political leadership uncertainty is rattling bond markets. Corporate Moves: Vodafone Idea raised Rs 1,182.5 crore via warrants from Aditya Birla Group; Kajaria Ceramics approved a buyback at ₹1,380/share; Turtlemint’s IPO was only 57% subscribed on day two. Energy & Trade Risks: Analysts say Pakistan’s Iran-war diplomacy could bring goodwill but won’t fix deeper economic constraints; Gulf tensions are reshaping travel demand even as overall demand stays resilient.

Blue Economy & Finance: The UWI Five Islands Campus launched a Blue Finance and Ocean Innovation side event ahead of CHOGM, aiming to spotlight ocean conservation and financing models. Energy Shock Stimulus: Indonesia unveiled a $1.48bn (26.34tn rupiah) mid-year stimulus to support growth amid the energy crisis and a currency slump. Iran Deal Watch: The US authorized Iranian oil production and sales under a temporary general license as talks continue, with potential knock-on effects for oil markets and global prices. Central Bank Rules: Albania’s lawmakers urged the central bank to prioritize the exchange rate and align more closely with EU rules. AI in Finance: MoonPay acquired Entendre to bring AI accounting agents into stablecoin-linked finance workflows. Markets Sentiment: Financial advisors turned more optimistic on stocks and the broader economy, citing improving conditions. Housing Affordability: A new report says affordability is unlikely to return to pre-2022 levels as supply stays tight and rates remain sensitive. Environmental Cost: A study estimates “mega-consumers” face up to $5.7tn a year in environmental damage, underscoring the economic weight of climate and biodiversity loss. Tech & Jobs: New Mexico and Albuquerque backed BlackVe to expand space/defense operations, targeting 152 high-paying jobs. Policy & Trade: Qatar and France discussed energy cooperation and ways to deepen ties. US-Iran Credibility Debate: Nobel economist Paul Krugman warned Trump’s Iran approach could damage US credibility for years.

US-Iran Talks & Energy Markets: Crude prices slid as the US and Iran began a 60-day negotiation process in Switzerland, with mediators Pakistan and Qatar involved; the Strait of Hormuz reopening remains central to global shipping and oil flows. Indian Markets & IPO Momentum: Sensex and Nifty rebounded on Monday, led by banking and IT, while Reliance surged after Jio filed for an IPO—seen as a major value unlock. Corporate Deals & Expansion: Aurobindo Pharma won US FTC approval to buy Lannett for $250m, boosting complex generics and adding manufacturing capacity; Kirloskar Oil Engines jumped 20% on a 196 MW power order for AI data centres. Policy & Digital Economy: China rolled out measures to strengthen data security governance and issued an action plan to boost foreign investment use; it also plans coordinated development across platform-economy firms by 2028. Regional Business Climate: Hong Kong climbed to No. 2 in IMD competitiveness, while China-South Korea cooperation signals pragmatic economic ties amid global uncertainty. SME Leadership Trend: SMEs are increasingly turning to fractional executives to solve specific growth problems without the cost and risk of permanent C-suite hires.

Philippines Monetary Policy: The BSP is expected to stay hawkish, with lenders projecting another 50 bps of hikes to lift the policy rate to 5.25% by end-2026, aiming to anchor the peso amid supply-side inflation. Fed Communication Shift: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is cutting back “forward guidance” and shortening the policy statement, a move that could raise market swings and keep borrowing costs higher. Global Markets & Rates: Analysts warn a quieter Fed could still mean volatile markets and higher rates, while Morgan Stanley frames Warsh’s approach as a brake on future policy expectations. Brexit Backlash in the UK: An ECFR poll finds up to two-thirds of Britons across parties blame Brexit for higher living costs and worse economic prospects, with most now favoring closer EU ties. Tech & Logistics Investment: Amazon unveiled a next-gen AI warehouse robot that can follow conversational prompts, tied to a €10bn Europe fulfilment push, alongside broader automation rollout. Nigeria Power Crunch: The IMF warns Nigeria’s below-cost electricity tariffs are creating implicit subsidies and mounting fiscal risks, with sector arrears reaching extreme levels by end-2025. India Space Economy: India’s space sector is projected to grow five-fold to $40–45bn in a decade, driven by private participation and new commercialization structures. West Asia Trade & Energy: With US-Iran talks in focus, bullion and oil-linked expectations are set to steer gold and silver next week, while easing tensions may reduce safe-haven demand. Kazakhstan Mediation Offer: Astana says it’s ready to mediate between Afghanistan and Pakistan if formally requested, pushing dialogue over escalation. Corporate EV Momentum: Tata Motors reports 3,400+ electric commercial vehicle orders, signaling EVs moving from trials into regular freight and fleet operations. Guinea Resource Policy: Guinea suspends raw gold exports to force local processing and refine-and-sell domestically, aiming to keep more value inside the country.

Budget Execution Watch (Bangladesh): Economist Hossain Zillur Rahman urged the government to publish a clear roadmap for implementing the next fiscal year budget and to release a three-month progress report, while the finance minister said stabilising the fragile economy could take two years and pointed to reforms separating policy from execution plus Tk 800 crore earmarked for the creative economy. Energy Supply & Risk (Indonesia): Indonesia’s energy minister said coal supplies for PLN are secure despite recent blackouts, blaming outages on operational and distribution issues and citing production mandates above PLN’s needs. Oil Route Relief, Future Vulnerability (Global): With the Strait of Hormuz reopened after a US-Iran pause, analysts warned the world still relies heavily on depleted reserves, making future disruptions harder to absorb. Banking Scrutiny (Cyprus): A debate piece questioned whether Cyprus banks’ “stronger than ever” claims translate into real support for the local economy, highlighting concerns about profits versus social impact. FDI Momentum (Bahrain): Bahrain’s foreign direct investment rose 81% over a decade to BD17.733bn by end-2025, with the biggest jump in 2023. Infrastructure Orders (India): RVNL won a Rs 2,977 crore NMDC contract for Vizag mineral blending stockpiles; Texmaco Rail secured Rs 11.65 crore for transmission works; Power Mech landed Rs 1,008.90 crore for BTG civil/structural work at a JSW Thermal project. Agriculture Crisis Response (India): BJP chief Nitin Nabin plans talks with agriculture economist SS Johl in Ludhiana on Monday, focusing on crop diversification away from wheat and paddy and MSP support for alternatives. Policy & Markets (India): India’s top finance committee is reviewing the 2025-26 economy with the Finance Ministry, RBI and experts amid global shocks. Corporate/Capital Markets (India): Emkay reiterated a BUY on Pine Labs with a Rs 225 target; Motilal Oswal kept a BUY on JSW Steel with a Rs 1,520 target. Monetary Policy (Namibia): Bank of Namibia raised the repo rate to 6.75% to protect the Namibia dollar peg, citing weak domestic activity and external shock risks to NDP 6.

Blue Economy & Trade Security: Malaysia says accurate hydrographic data is now a strategic national-security asset, warning that disruptions in the South China Sea and Strait of Melaka can ripple into global supply chains and energy markets. Tech-Led Development: Malaysia’s PM Anwar frames a new growth phase around semiconductors, innovation and AI, while stressing fair benefits and jobs from industrial projects like Penang’s Setia Fontaines. Private Sector Confidence: Nepal’s private sector remains hesitant despite abundant bank liquidity and lower rates, with weak demand and stalled investment momentum. Ghana 24-Hour Economy Push: Ghana’s 24-hour markets plan faces political friction as critics question delivery and cocoa irrigation pledges, while MPs defend the rollout and district coverage. Digital Payments Expansion: KripiCard launches a unified digital marketplace combining crypto virtual cards, digital gift cards and global eSIMs. US-Iran Economic Stakes: Trump links the Iran interim deal to avoiding “economic catastrophe,” as Hormuz reopening and sanctions waivers move oil and markets—setting up fresh pressure ahead of talks. Russia Monetary Policy: Russia cuts its key rate to 14.25% but signals rates stay elevated due to pro-inflationary fiscal spending and fuel-price pressures. Corporate Governance (India): TVS Motor appoints an independent director via postal ballot with 99.81% approval.

Cuba Economic Overhaul: Cuba’s National Assembly approved 176 reforms to decentralize the state-run economy, expand private hiring and banking, open more room for imports/exports, and allow private real estate investment—moves framed as a major shift under U.S. pressure. Bolivia Crisis Escalation: President Rodrigo Paz declared a state of emergency and authorized broader military deployment to clear road blockades after 50 days of protests that choked supplies and halted economic activity. UK Monetary Policy: The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75% as inflation eased to 2.8%, but energy-price volatility and second-round risks keep policymakers cautious. India Housing & Urban Growth: A KPMG report says India’s urban transformation hinges on unlocking affordable housing, easing land and approval bottlenecks, and strengthening rental market rules. Turkey-EU Energy & Digital Push: Türkiye and Germany pledged deeper energy and critical-minerals cooperation, while Türkiye approved a Turkic states digital economy partnership to boost cross-border e-trade. Middle East Trade Relief: With the Strait of Hormuz reopening, Bahrain expects lower freight and insurance costs and gradual normalization for regional trade. Data-Center Power Deal (India): Kirloskar Oil Engines won a large order to supply 192 MW of backup power systems for AI-ready hyperscale data centres via HyperNext.

Housing Finance Boom: Vridhi Home Finance says FY26 profit nearly quintupled to ₹22.3 Cr as total managed assets jumped 65% YoY to ₹1,005.3 Cr, with asset quality staying healthy (GNPA ~0.29%, NNPA ~0.22%). Cuba’s Economic Pivot: Cuba’s parliament approved 174 economic reforms in a week, aiming to loosen state control and open space for private capital, though analysts warn implementation and institutions will decide real impact. Digital Work Rules Under Strain: Kenya’s digital platform economy is outpacing labor law, with experts warning algorithms increasingly act as “the boss” on pay and performance without transparency. Trade Policy Moves: Canada introduced a 10% surtax on canned vegetable imports for up to 200 days to protect domestic producers, while India launched an anti-dumping probe into “Resorcinol” imports from China and Japan. Bankruptcy Signals Consumer Pressure: Sleep Number filed for Chapter 11 with about $672M debt, citing inflation, tariffs, and supply-chain disruptions, and plans a sale to Sleep Country Canada. Tech Execution Focus: Info-Tech LIVE 2026 stressed that agentic AI value depends on disciplined execution, governance, and reliable data foundations. Energy Route Watch: Iran denied reports of Strait of Hormuz closures, saying merchant traffic continues safely under the U.S. MoU.

Kerala Budget: Kerala’s revised 2026-27 plan pushes “New Age Kerala” with a port-led “Mission Samudra,” a “Knowledge Valley” push to curb student migration, and a “silver economy” for seniors, while also moving to restructure the KIIFB after off-budget borrowing raised debt risks. Zimbabwe Finance: Caledonia Mining says it has put about US$250m into Zimbabwe over nine years, while banks begin extending loans beyond 2030 as policy shifts away from a rigid mono-currency deadline. UK Public Finances: UK borrowing jumped to £23.3bn in May and debt interest hit a record as Middle East-linked growth worries and higher RPI inflation lifted costs. India Manufacturing & Health: Tamil Nadu health authorities probe alleged contamination from Tata Electronics’ Hosur iPhone components plant after farmer complaints. Nepal Trade & Aid: Nepal’s tea exports face a crisis as India tightens quality testing and rules; separately, ADB approved a US$115m loan for water and sanitation upgrades. Tech & Markets: Türkiye showcases 26 startups at VivaTech 2026; SpaceX plans at least $20bn more via bond issuance after its IPO; and Defiance launches Europe’s first memory-focused ETF.

Global Competitiveness: Singapore has reclaimed the top spot in the IMD world competitiveness ranking, with leaders pointing to productivity, labour-market strength and economic stability amid geopolitics. Antitrust & CRE: A tenant has sued major commercial real estate brokers and CoStar, alleging a hub-and-spoke price-fixing scheme using nonpublic lease data. Energy & Climate Finance: UAE climate fund Alterra is co-investing in Peru’s Inkia Energy to scale renewables and support Peru’s decarbonisation push. Industrial Policy: Serbia’s PMC Automotive will expand production in Kragujevac with EUR 1.45m in state incentives, aiming for new jobs and higher output. Ocean Economy: At the first Our Ocean Conference in Africa, governments and partners announced $6.4bn in commitments for ocean conservation, fisheries and blue-economy resilience. Entrepreneurship Support (UK): Scotland opened applications for a Start Up Challenge offering grants up to £30,000 for young entrepreneurs. Middle East Spillovers: Economists warn inflation pain could linger even after the Iran war ends, as trade and energy disruptions take time to unwind. Green Growth Markets: LSEG says the global “green economy” hit a record $10tn in 2025 revenue, with green firms outperforming.

Middle East Ceasefire & Oil: Trump says a US-Iran deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices lower and easing global economic pressure. Central Banking & Rates: The Fed’s outlook is rattling markets as investors price in potential hikes; the Philippines’ BSP raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.75% to anchor inflation expectations. Trade & Transport Costs: Karachi Port froze a proposed 5% tariff increase for FY2026-27 to cut costs for importers/exporters. Digital & Payments: Pakistan pilots Raast QR for motorway e-challan payments, aiming to speed up and digitize fines. Capital Markets: India’s NSE is set for a record ₹30,000 crore IPO via an offer-for-sale structure, while Tata Motors plans up to 2.5% CV price hikes from July 1. Africa’s Growth Drivers: GSMA says mobile tech added $240bn to Africa’s economy in 2025 and could reach $290bn by 2030; Absa backs entrepreneurship education amid South Africa’s high unemployment. Competitiveness Watch: Hong Kong ranks No. 2 globally in competitiveness, its best showing in seven years. Debt Stress: Russia’s debt burden is rising as sanctions force more expensive domestic borrowing. Mining & Commodities: UNCTAD warns Papua New Guinea can’t rely on tariff cuts alone for competitiveness; copper demand is boosting leverage for African producers.

Central Banking: The Fed held rates steady under new chair Kevin Warsh, but projections now point to a hike later this year, keeping markets jittery as inflation stays above target. Geopolitics & Energy: G7 leaders backed Ukraine air defences and signaled tighter pressure on Russia’s oil and gas, while Trump said a US-Iran framework could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and push oil prices lower. Global Growth Outlook: Singapore economists trimmed 2026 growth to 3.5% on geopolitical risks, even as AI spending is seen supporting demand. Digital Economy & Regulation: Ireland moved to publish its AI regulation bill to implement the EU AI Act, while G7 leaders renewed calls for a safer digital space for minors. Healthcare Economics: MedPAC urged Congress to rework Medicare’s misaligned incentives, and employers face mounting GLP-1 cost pressure. Data Centers & Investment: CPP Investments committed about $741m with CtrlS to expand India’s data-centre footprint for AI and hyperscalers. Cuba’s Economic Overhaul: Cuba’s Communist Party convened extraordinary sessions to fast-track reforms aimed at opening the economy and shrinking the state. Skills & Jobs: A UK engineering/manufacturing skills report warns gaps could cut apprenticeships and worsen NEET and benefits pressure. Blue Economy Capital: A Canada-based platform launched a CAD 100m–150m blue-economy fund targeting aquaculture and marine tech in Atlantic Canada.

Air Defense & Industry: Türkiye’s Aselsan signed a €780m ($905m) deal for air-defense systems under the Steel Dome “system-of-systems” architecture, boosting domestic procurement and AI-enabled command-and-control. EV Manufacturing: Hyundai Motor Türkiye will invest €715m in İzmit, including a €55m battery factory, to support mass production of the IONIQ 3 and next-gen models. EV Adoption: TÜİK data shows Türkiye’s EV fleet hit 436,474 in May, up sharply from 2011, while hybrids also keep climbing. Inflation Watch (UK): UK annual inflation held at 2.8% in May as higher petrol and transport costs were offset by easing food prices. US-Iran Deal & Energy: Markets are reacting to the US-Iran interim agreement, with economists saying the worst war-driven inflation may be over, though fuel-price relief may take time. Argentina Finance: The World Bank will issue guarantees enabling Argentina to access up to $2bn in commercial loans, aiming to lower borrowing costs and support reforms. Africa Digital Economy: GSMA forecasts mobile tech will add $290bn to Africa’s economy by 2030, stressing the usage gap is now the main hurdle. Creator Economy (India): INFLUISH raised pre-seed funding at a Rs 25 crore valuation to expand AI tools and monetization for creators.

US-Iran Peace Deal: President Marcos Jr. said the agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could help “normalize global economies” and ease price pressures tied to petroleum disruptions. Medicare Reform Debate: MedPAC warned that Medicare’s $1.1T payment systems are creating the wrong incentives, while again backing site-neutral payments for services delivered in physician offices. Business Finance Risk: A UK SME-focused analysis flags a shift toward short-term borrowing for cash-flow survival, warning it can quietly spiral into deeper trouble. Nepal Policy & Governance: Nepal’s Department of Industry ordered manufacturers to comply with anti-pollution rules or face action, while Kathmandu saw the passport department DG arrested over e-passport irregularities. Regional Growth Watch: Rwanda reported 10% GDP growth in Q1 2026, led by industry, services, and agriculture; T&T’s economist warned debt risks are rising toward default. Tech & Trade: Amazon expanded quick commerce with 100+ urban fulfillment centres in India, boosting product variety for near-instant delivery. Markets: Nepal’s NEPSE fell 6.31 points as 177 companies declined.

US-Iran Deal & Energy Markets: Stocks jumped and oil eased after a tentative US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though details are still pending and full recovery could take months; Central Banking: The Bank of Japan lifted rates to a 31-year high (1.0%) as oil-driven inflation risks spread, while markets also watch the Fed; Commodities: Gold held near recent highs as investors wait for deal specifics and Fed signals; Trade & Corruption Risks (Nepal): Nepal Rastra Bank flagged rising trade-based money laundering risks, urging tighter controls on mispricing in imports/exports; Agriculture Policy (Nepal): Nepal’s agriculture ministry urged strict rollout of the spring paddy minimum support price amid complaints about competition from cheaper Indian supplies; Regional Cooperation (Nepal-India): Nepal and India business leaders met in Siliguri to push stronger trade and investment links; Infrastructure & Power (Venezuela): Venezuela signed with General Electric to rebuild its failing power grid after prolonged blackouts; Monetary/Market Watch (India): India’s trade deficit widened in May on higher petroleum imports, while reports expect relief if crude softens; IPO Watch (India): Turtlemint Fintech set an IPO for June 19, targeting up to ₹883 crore.