AGP Executive Report

Global Markets & Inflation: U.S. stocks rebounded as oil eased and August inflation held at 3.4%, keeping Fed rate-hike expectations alive. Energy Costs: Bank of America warned record diesel prices are a “real-economy pressure point” for shipping, trucking, agriculture and construction. Housing & Demand Risks: Australia’s housing downturn is raising recession fears, but economists say a property-price drop alone is unlikely to tip the economy. Central Banking: Bank of Mongolia opened a public consultation on 2027 monetary policy, targeting inflation around 5% and flexible exchange-rate adjustment. Trade & Shipping Security: Iran-backed Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb are spotlighting renewed chokepoint risks for global oil flows. Regional Development & Jobs: Northland’s renewable push faces transmission constraints in the Far North, while Wyoming producers met Fed economists to discuss real agricultural conditions. Policy & Regulation: The EU outlined plans to cut single-market barriers to circularity via a Circular Economy Act. Local Economy & Services: Bank of New Hampshire donated $5,000 to housing-stability nonprofit Family Promise. Corporate Moves: Talon Metals scrapped a $365M nickel processing plant in North Dakota. AI & Governance: A New Mexico court fined a lawyer for filing fabricated testimony after using ChatGPT.

UK Economy Beat: Britain’s GDP surprised with 0.4% growth in July, driven by services and a surge in AI-linked computer programming and cloud spending, giving Chancellor John Healey a near-term boost ahead of his Budget. Rates & Inflation Watch: Turkey’s market survey nudged up year-end inflation expectations while trimming growth forecasts, and Cyprus economists warned the ECB could push rates higher if Middle East tensions keep oil-driven inflation sticky. Fed Pressure: Trump again urged the Fed to cut rates and threatened to stop trading with deficit countries, raising uncertainty for supply chains while economists debate whether higher rates are already improving affordability. AI Economy Debate: New warnings from Anthropic and market chatter highlighted a split view: AI could lift growth but also squeeze jobs and widen inequality. China Demand Concern: Economists flagged China’s production strength colliding with weak consumption, with property stress and low confidence weighing on domestic demand. Geopolitics & Energy: Brent jumped above $107 on US-Iran-related shipping and Hormuz risk, feeding into inflation worries across markets. Regional Growth Moves: Malaysia pitched itself for ASEAN’s next hyperscale/AI compute wave; Odisha courted UAE investors to diversify beyond mining; Telangana advanced a unified governance plan for its urban economy region. Digital Inclusion: Zimbabwe launched “One Tap,” a commission-free super-app to formalize parts of the informal services economy. Ukraine Trade Risk: Suspension of Ukraine’s maritime corridor threatens broader economic fallout beyond export losses, including working-capital strain.

IMF Outlook: The IMF says the global economy has stayed resilient despite six months of the U.S.-Iran war, but uncertainty is still high as energy shocks, rising debt, and stalled disinflation weigh on growth. Markets & Policy: Bond selloffs and higher oil prices are pushing yields up, while economists warn Trump’s proposed $5,000 “dividend” could reignite inflation and widen deficits. Energy Costs: Finland’s transport groups warn diesel prices above €2.50/litre are damaging the economy and urge cutting biofuel mandates or fuel taxes. Nigeria Power & Finance: Nigeria’s power minister secured Chinese commitments to speed up Presidential Power Initiative projects, and the CBN won a national award for FX and banking reforms. Tech & Privacy: LG denies smart TVs record ambient conversations; Singapore CEOs face pressure to prove measurable AI returns, with “shadow AI” raising governance risks. Business Moves: NNPCL plans 50–70 smart self-service stations in six months; CN filed conditions to preserve rail competition in the Midwest; Trader Joe’s set a Sept. 17 opening for its Lafayette store. Food & Farms: USDA data modernization aims to improve farm information symmetry, while USDA forecasts modest 2026 farm income growth as costs rise.

Jobs & Rates: The US added 162,000 jobs last month, while traders weigh whether the Fed will hike again as bond yields and inflation worries linger. FX & Oil: India’s rupee slid 38 paise to close at 95.46 per dollar, pressured by foreign portfolio outflows and crude above $100. Aviation Safety: Nepal’s DGCA ordered drug tests for pilots across all airlines after a Phuket incident raised concerns about psychoactive substance use. Trade & Tariffs: Puerto Rico’s tariff bill jumped to $919.7m in 2025 (+289%), with costs rippling into manufacturing and construction; Swiss exporters may see up to $2bn in US tariff refunds after a Supreme Court ruling. Markets & Deals: Nasdaq is expanding its tokenized-equities push with Payward via a $100m investment; Canada’s Surge Copper’s Berg project was picked for the 2026 Canada Investment Summit Dealbook. Disaster Relief (Nepal): Nepal’s PM relief fund holds NPR 12.43bn; inDrive donated NPR 75m, while UNOPS pledged support for flood-damaged infrastructure reconstruction. Energy & Cost Pressure: Visayas power shortages in the Philippines are driving calls for a House inquiry amid fears of higher electricity prices. Circular Economy: Finland’s Syklo opened a €70–80m circular hub linking plastics recycling to biocomposites for higher-value manufacturing.

Trade & Tariffs: Economists say Trump’s new U.S. bans on some Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles, plus added 50% tariffs on other goods, are unlikely to dent Canada’s overall economy much—though specific sectors could feel the squeeze. Monetary Policy: A Fed fight is brewing ahead of the September meeting, with hawks arguing tariffs are pushing inflation and others warning inflation drivers won’t respond to rate hikes. Energy Costs: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright links higher gas prices to refinery closures, arguing refinery shutdowns are driving costs up. Digital Skills & Jobs: Nigeria launched a free digital academy selecting 16,000 trainees from 72,850 applicants to build capacity for the digital economy. Local Growth & Housing: Christchurch’s post-quake recovery is credited with boosting jobs and confidence, while St Andrews faces pressure from wealthy buyers worsening housing affordability. Infrastructure & Ports: Canada’s first majority Indigenous-owned deep-sea port in B.C. opened to move critical minerals, and Nigeria’s Badagry deep-seaport plan advanced via an MoU with APM Terminals. Circular Economy: Eveready and Zepto launched a doorstep “Return Battery” collection push in India to expand recycling. Global Finance: Moody’s warns interconnected risks require stronger investor confidence in insurance and reinsurance. Policy Roadmaps: Türkiye unveiled a 2027–2029 medium-term program targeting $2.2T output and single-digit inflation by 2029.

Oil & Markets: Brent pushed back toward $100 as Middle East tensions flared, dragging Indian stocks to a three-month low and rattling broader Asian sentiment. FX & Inflation Pressure: The Indian rupee slid past 95 per dollar as the RBI likely stepped in with spot sales and FX swaps to drain liquidity. Digital Trust & Payments: Zambia launched a National Public Key Infrastructure to secure digital identities, transactions and government documents, aiming to boost confidence for businesses and investors. AI Divide Risk: New Zealand warned that SMEs could fall into an “AI divide” unless connectivity, skills and data foundations are strengthened beyond just adopting tools. Trade & Growth: Armenia’s trade deficit widened 20% in the first half as exports fell and imports rose. Tourism Engine: Southwest Illinois reported tourism-led growth, supporting thousands of jobs and higher local tax revenue. Regional Deals: Mongolia and Montenegro moved to expand business cooperation via a new roundtable. Public Finance Oversight: Mongolia launched an audit into COP17 funding and spending. Energy Shock Buffer: China cut oil purchases amid Hormuz disruptions, helping stabilize global energy prices.

U.S.-Canada Trade War: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs took effect Tuesday, with economists warning the dispute could permanently reshape North American trade flows and strain trust at USMCA talks. Border Logistics: Canada is also pushing exports via Prince Rupert’s CANXPORT, a $541M container facility that could divert more cargo toward Pacific routes. Cost Pressure: Diesel hit record highs, raising shipping and production costs and feeding into broader price pressure. Housing & Growth: Dickinson County growth plans are being held back by a shortage of affordable housing, limiting workforce retention and business expansion. Local Labor Outlook: Idaho projects workforce growth far above the national pace, while Minnesota’s job market keeps outperforming the country. Business Expansion: A North Alabama remodeling firm reported ~49% year-over-year growth, signaling demand in local service economies. AI & Energy Efficiency: A healthcare pilot using AI-enabled building controls cut HVAC issues and reduced monthly energy costs by about 6.5%. Tech, Finance & Policy: The Bank of England flagged upside inflation risks; US officials raised security concerns about Ford’s China partnerships; and a court blocked an IRS plan to share taxpayer addresses with ICE.

Oil & Markets: Brent is expected to stay in a high-risk band as Hormuz disruption and refinery outages keep scarcity in play, with analysts warning prices could push toward $120–$130 if shipping risks persist. Middle East Trade: Cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell after Iran threatened US retaliation, while Bab el-Mandeb saw more vessels—an uneven hit to global logistics. FX Pressure: India’s rupee logged its sharpest drop in weeks as oil prices neared $100, feeding importers’ hedging demand. South Korea Growth: Korea’s economy grew 0.6% in Q2, driven by AI-related exports, with the Bank of Korea nudging its outlook. South Africa Slump: SA GDP shrank 0.2% in Q2, ending six quarters of growth, with mining and manufacturing dragging. India EV Demand: FADA says August EV retail sales hit a record 2.98 lakh units and penetration rose to 12.3%. Corporate Moves: Sun Pharma won investment-grade ratings ahead of its $11.75bn Organon acquisition; Samsung India reportedly cut jobs in consumer electronics. Energy Transition & Food Security (Malaysia): Malaysia’s east coast is pitched as a renewable-energy and agrofood hub, boosted by smart farming and the ECRL rail link. Local Economy (UK): Ayr’s Festival of Flight is credited with about £7.9m injected into the local economy.

South Korea Growth: The Bank of Korea says GDP rose 0.6% in Q2, matching its earlier estimate and driven by strong AI-linked exports and investment, with small revisions to construction and intellectual property. US Jobs & Labor Day: A Labor Day snapshot highlights a mixed US picture: unemployment around 4.1% but hiring cooling, while a separate White House push points to August job growth of 162,000 as manufacturing and construction lead. UK Fiscal Fight: Chancellor John Healey’s first big speech argues the UK is “turning the corner,” but also signals tougher fiscal discipline and spending restraint amid debt pressure. Māori Cost-of-Living & Jobs: New Zealand coverage warns Māori unemployment stays above 10%, with election-year focus on who is bearing the downturn. Māori Wealth Push: Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka points to $32.6bn in Māori authority assets and 55,700 Māori business jobs as the next growth challenge shifts to turning assets into work and incomes. New Zealand Recovery Watch: Moody’s says NZ is emerging from stagnation, but cost-of-living strain, fiscal limits, and data-centre needs could shape uneven outcomes. Energy Pressure in Iran: Iran raised gasoline prices for heavy users, a move that could feed inflation and squeeze households. Regional Connectivity in NZ: A $640k loan for Stewart Island Flights targets regional access and tourism, while warning fuel costs remain a risk. Climate Finance: Singapore insurer Income Insurance commits about $528m to climate investments and targets lower emissions intensity by 2030. Corporate/Capital Markets: Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery plans a major IPO for up to 10m investors via BVN-linked subscription, aiming to broaden ownership. Creative Economy & IP: France’s Macron urged “taking back control” from AI and social media’s attention economy, while the Motion Picture Association signed anti-piracy and future-cinema cooperation declarations. Housing Access (Spain): Spain launched CASA 47, a public housing portal starting with 800 homes and promising faster, transparent applications with rent capped at 30% of income. Hiring Outlook (Singapore): ManpowerGroup finds Q4 hiring intentions steady at 13% but employers are more selective and vacancies take longer to fill. Germany Manufacturing: Germany’s industrial output fell 1.1% in July, missing forecasts and adding pressure to Europe’s growth outlook. Russia Capital Outflows: Russia’s central bank reports a record $12.2bn “errors and omissions” outflow in Q2, raising questions about hidden capital pressure.

UK Housing & Cost of Living: Lloyds says UK house prices fell 0.4% in August year-on-year for the first time in nearly three years, as higher borrowing costs and uncertainty keep buyers cautious. UK Public Finance: Chancellor John Healey promised growth-focused spending plans while warning about debt interest pressures ahead of his first Budget, as business groups push for changes like scrapping the state pension “triple lock.” US Rates & Debt Watch: Wall Street slid after a strong US jobs report (162,000 added), reviving rate-hike fears; separate commentary warns US debt and rising Treasury yields are a bigger problem than markets assume. India Markets & Housing: The rupee closed slightly weaker (94.50 per dollar) amid crude strength; meanwhile, analysis shows India’s home prices are rising faster than construction costs, with land and margins driving much of the gap. Corporate & Jobs: Jaguar Land Rover plans 4,000 job cuts; a Devon boiler firm collapse will cost 30 jobs. Food & Fintech: Swiggy adds a 24/7 food-safety helpline; Upstox launches US stock investing for Indian users. Global Business Moves: Volkswagen’s Audi CEO calls for efficiency gains in premium brands; RBL Bank clears up to $1bn overseas bond funding. Circular Economy: Philippines President Marcos Jr. points to Marikina’s flood and waste system as a model for other cities.

US Debt & Bonds: Economist Robin Brooks says rising long-term Treasury yields reflect weaker demand for debt, not just inflation fears, with the AI spending boom now competing with ballooning borrowing. Labor Market Split: The US information sector cut 23,000 jobs in August while the broader economy added 162,000, keeping unemployment at 4.1%—a “stable but frozen” hiring picture. UK Growth Credibility: Chancellor John Healey will argue the UK can “turn a corner” by pairing fiscal discipline with regional growth plans as bond turmoil raises the stakes for a tough Budget. Housing Pressure: New Zealand’s QV House Price Index shows the biggest quarterly drop in two years, with buyers negotiating hard and values slipping across major cities. Trade Shock: Michigan lawmakers warn Trump’s “erratic” tariffs are hitting jobs and investment as tit-for-tat duties with Canada continue. Middle East Risk: Iran warns of “faster, heavier and more painful” retaliation and sets up an “economic war headquarters,” while sanctions squeeze its economy. Digital Economy & AI: IMF flags a tug-of-war between oil shocks and AI investment, and China’s economist Lan Xiaohuan stresses the need to rebalance consumption and social safety nets. Corporate/Legal: A San Francisco firm filed a class action against Oura over alleged inaccurate sleep tracking claims. Energy & Shipping: Nigeria approved long-stalled Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund disbursements to boost indigenous shipping, while a MUFG report highlights maritime chokepoints as major global trade risks.

US Energy Costs: Gas prices pushed above $4 a gallon as Middle East tensions and election-season politics squeeze household budgets. Fed Pressure: Trump and aides are publicly urging the Fed to avoid hikes (or cut), as August jobs data beat expectations and rate fears return. Global Markets: Stocks ended mixed after the strong US jobs print, with investors now watching inflation data and central-bank signals. Iran Economic Response: Iran set up an “economic war headquarters” to speed tax, customs, banking and other support for firms disrupted by wartime conditions. Insurance Capital Boost: China’s finance ministry plans fresh injections into major insurers to strengthen solvency and risk resilience. Qatar Credit Outlook: Fitch reaffirmed Qatar’s AA rating, citing LNG risk easing and a rebound tied to North Field expansion. UK Growth Debate: UK Chancellor John Healey says growth must spread beyond big cities, while economists warn Britain is “taxing itself to death.” Automotive Restructuring: JLR confirmed a voluntary redundancy programme targeting about £1.7bn savings, with around 4,000 UK jobs at stake. Trade & Logistics: A Spain ports study says cutting truck wait times by one hour could free over €400m a year. Emerging Markets Flows: India saw FPIs pull out ₹8,731 crore from equities as oil and geopolitics rattled sentiment. Tech & Finance: Coinbase says crypto’s next growth wave may come from AI agents making payments and trades. SME & Business Growth: UAE reports a surge in SME licences, while India’s NoBroker targets profitability within 8–10 months.

US Jobs & Fed Bets: August hiring blew past forecasts with 162,000 jobs, keeping unemployment at 4.1% and pushing markets back toward a September rate hike. Global Outlook: The IMF says growth is steady near 3% in 2026 but flags four risks: high public debt, energy-market pressure, stalled disinflation, and uncertainty around AI’s economic impact. Iran Sanctions Pressure: US sanctions are intensifying to squeeze Iran’s oil and broader economy, with knock-on effects for fuel prices. Greece Cost-of-Living Plan: Greece’s PM unveiled a €2.2bn reform package including higher minimum wage and pensions, plus electricity bill relief and farm tax exemptions. Nigeria Trade & Ports: Finance minister Taiwo Oyedele urged Nigeria Customs to hit world-class benchmarks on port efficiency, transparency, and revenue collection. Qatar Credit Strength: Fitch reaffirmed Qatar at ‘AA’, citing strong sovereign buffers and LNG expansion prospects. Circular Economy Push: Qatar’s Zero Waste drive is expanding recycling and waste-to-resource efforts, aiming to cut landfill volumes. Local Business Climate (Nigeria): Contractors’ groups renewed calls for payment of verified debts, warning delays are choking cash flow. Creative Economy (Philippines): A Philippine lawmaker highlighted the creative sector’s P2.12tn size in 2025 and its jobs impact, calling for stronger support for creators.

US Economy & Jobs: Trump said the FIFA World Cup generated over $18B for the US economy and supported 160,000+ jobs, as the tournament was hosted by the US, Mexico and Canada. Labor Market: Fresh US hiring data showed employers added 162,000 jobs in August and unemployment held at 4.1%, while wage growth cooled—fueling debate over whether the Fed should cut or even raise rates. Policy Pressure: Trump also threatened to halt parts of US trade unless the Fed cuts rates, raising the stakes for inflation and business planning. Energy & Climate Costs: A Democratic economist linked renewable mandates to higher electricity prices, arguing consumers paid $125B more in mandated states and carbon reductions were far costlier than market prices. India Tech & Industry: TCS’ HyperVault plans a ₹70,000-crore, 1 GW AI data centre campus in Hyderabad, targeting 7,000 jobs. Electric Mobility Supply Chain: India extended timelines for e-bus and e-truck traction motor manufacturing due to rare-earth magnet licensing delays from China. Crypto Regulation: Kyrgyzstan tightened crypto oversight over sanction risks, launching a compliance platform and revoking some virtual asset provider licenses. Public Services: Karnataka launched “Prajaseva Abhiyana” for weekly citizen grievance redressal, and Odisha pledged 45,000 teacher hires over three years. Trade & Growth Signals: South Korea’s exports hit $709.4B so far this year, driven by AI-chip demand. Finance: RBI approved LIC to buy up to 9.99% of ICICI Bank.

U.S. Jobs Shock: The economy added 162,000 jobs in August, far above forecasts, with unemployment steady at 4.1%—but the strength is reviving rate-hike pressure and pushing mortgage and borrowing costs higher. Fed & Markets: Markets reacted cautiously as traders recalibrated odds for the Sept. 15–16 meeting; Treasury yields firmed and Bitcoin slid below $80K before partially recovering. Energy Costs Hit: Diesel prices surged to record levels, squeezing California’s trucking and farm sectors and raising costs across the broader industrial economy. UK Growth Watch: The British Chambers of Commerce expects UK growth to stay near 1% amid weak investment and sluggish exports, while retail demand slows ahead of Christmas. Health-Care Money Pressure: Health plans posted widespread losses in 2025, and Medicare “care gap” programs face scrutiny over whether they truly save money. Cyber & Compliance: McKesson disclosed a major breach tied to 284 million records, while Tesla faces a U.S. probe into its Cybercab self-certification process. Local Economy & Business: Saskatchewan added 2,600 jobs in August, and a UK constitutional vote would enshrine union rights—raising questions about labor and competitiveness.

Central Banking & Populism: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey warned that populist pressure on central banks could erode independence and hurt the global economy’s long-term stability. Jobs & Trade: Canada’s August labour force survey is due, with economists watching for modest job gains as tariff uncertainty clouds hiring and investment. Public Finance Pressure: The US national debt has crossed $40tn, renewing worries about deficits, borrowing costs, and fiscal strain. Energy Transition: Northern Ireland hit a record where renewables supplied 50% of electricity demand in the year to June 2026, supporting net-zero targets. Air Travel Premiumization: Emirates rolled out a fully electric premium-economy seat with full-height privacy screens and “lounge mode,” pushing privacy into a mid-tier cabin. Digital Economy & Trust: Nigeria’s fintech OPay faced misinformation about shutting down; stakeholders backed its continued operations and stressed trust in digital payments. Industrial Jobs Risk: Volkswagen plans major job cuts as Europe’s car industry confronts demand weakness and margin targets. Middle East Sanctions: Iran’s economy faces intensified US pressure, with officials warning the squeeze is getting harder to evade. Local Growth & Skills: Malaysia’s Agrovator@Sekolah expands AI and smart-farming training for students to feed its digital AgTech talent pipeline.